[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 23W S of 13N moving W at 15
kt. The wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on SSMI
TPW imagery. Minimal convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is along 58W/59W S of 13N moving W at 15 kt. The
wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N13W
to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues west of the tropical wave along
23W from 06N26W to 01N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N to 06N between 31W and 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes across the Florida Panhandle,
through the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of Honduras.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico and across
Florida, south of 29N and east of 90W.

A surface trough is expected to form in the western part of the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening, then drift across the SW Gulf of
Mexico at night, through the weekend. A frontal trough will
cross the NE Gulf of Mexico late this weekend with fresh SW
winds. A surface ridge in the northern Gulf of Mexico will
maintain gentle to moderate SE winds through the remainder of
the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes from the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
through the Gulf of Honduras into Guatemala. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers are north
of Honduras and west of 80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in the coastal waters of Central America from
Panama along 79W to the east-central coast of Nicaragua.

Rainshowers are evident from 17N to 22N between the Mona Passage
and 78W, including Hispaniola and the Windward Passage.

High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean Sea and in the
Gulf of Honduras, with moderate to fresh trade winds expected
elsewhere, during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak low pressure center is evident near 28N58W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers, are to the north of a line from 32N37W to
25N50W to 22N61W to beyond 32N73W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers also are in the Atlantic Ocean north of 28N
between 77W and 80W.

A surface ridge extends across the east-central Atlantic north
of 15N. A 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 29N71W. The
high will weaken this weekend, and the surface ridge will move
southward. A surface trough will move off the Carolinas into the
western Atlantic Ocean this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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