[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Depression Alberto on 29/0900 UTC is inland over
Alabama near 32.3N 86.8W. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with
gusts to 35 kt, with a minimum pressure of 995 mb. See the last
NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC for more details.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues over
central Cuba, adding to the 10 to 18 inches of rainfall that
entrained during the passage of Subtropical Storm Alberto over
the weekend and Monday. Widespread flooding and the potential for
landslides in rugged terrain will remain a concern through
tonight.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is south of 13N along 42W moving W at 15 kt. The
wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery.
Isolated moderate convection is within 120 NM of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 02N30W to 01N37W to
03N41W, then west of the tropical wave from 03N44W to the coast
of South America near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
along the monsoon trough from 06N-09N between 16W-19W. Isolated
moderate convetion is within 180 nm of the entire ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Isolated moderate convection remains over the NE Gulf of Mexico N
of 27N and E of 89W associated with southern portion of Alberto.
Widely scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of
Florida and the SE Gulf S of 25N and E of 86W associated with
tropical moisture advecting N from Cuba and the Caribbean Sea. The
W Gulf in contrast has mostly fair weather.

Fresh to strong winds and seas to 6 ft associated with Alberto
are north of 28N along the Gulf coasts of Alabama and Florida.
Winds and seas in the NE Gulf of Mexico will rapidly diminish
today as it moves further inland.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds in the central Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds in the western Gulf waters will
diminish through tonight as high pressure builds across the
eastern Gulf. Fair weather will continue west of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate convection is over Central America from
Honduras to Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds are over the W
Caribbean, and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the central and E
Caribbean E of 80W.

Of significance in the upper levels, a ridge is producing
northerly flow from Nicaragua to beyond Cuba driving convection
N. The return flow is driving upper level moisture S from the S
Bahamas to Haiti to N Colombia.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the central Caribbean through the week.
The strongest winds are expected the coast of Colombia. A strong
trough will move from the NW Caribbean to the Yucatan Peninsula
Wed through early Fri with associated increasing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated moderate convection is between the Bahamas and Cuba. A
broad surface ridge across the east-central Atlantic is anchored
by a 1026 mb high centered near 29N44W and a 1027 mb high near
35N23W. The gradient between Alberto and the mid-Atlantic ridge
is producing fresh southerly winds W of 76W. These winds will
diminish during the next 12 hours.

Expect a cold front to reach near 30N in the central Atlantic on
Thursday. The tail end of this front will then move east Friday
and Saturday with isolated convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net