[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Tue May 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Depression Alberto on 29/1500 UTC is inland over
Alabama near 33.8N 87.2W. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with
gusts to 35 kt, with a minimum pressure of 999 mb. See the latest
WPC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers TCPAT1/WTNT31 KWNH
for more details.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues over
central and western Cuba, adding to the 10 to 18 inches of
rainfall that entrained during the passage of Subtropical Storm
Alberto over the weekend and Monday. Widespread flooding and the
potential for landslides in rugged terrain will remain a concern
through tonight.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 46W S of 13N moving W at 15 kt. The wave
shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Isolated
moderate convection is within 120 NM of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W
to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 01N35W to 02N45W. The
ITCZ extends W of a tropical wave at 02N48W and continues the
coast of South America near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is along the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 16W-19W.
Isolated moderate convetion is within 180 nm of the entire ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection remains over the NE Gulf of Mexico
N of 28N and E of 90W associated with southern portion of
Alberto. Scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of
Florida and the SE Gulf S of 25N and E of 87W associated with
tropical moisture advecting N from Cuba and the Caribbean Sea. The
W Gulf in contrast has mostly fair weather.

Fresh winds and seas to 5 ft associated with Alberto are north of
28N along the Gulf coasts of Alabama and Florida. Winds and seas
in the NE Gulf of Mexico will diminish further today as it moves
further inland.

Elsewhere, moderate winds in the central Gulf, and gentle to
moderate winds in the western Gulf waters will diminish also
today as high pressure builds across the eastern Gulf. Fair
weather will continue west of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is S of Cuba from 16N-20N between
81W-83W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over Central
America from E Honduras to Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds are
over the W Caribbean, and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the
central and E Caribbean E of 80W.

Of significance in the upper levels, a ridge is producing
northerly flow from Nicaragua to beyond Cuba driving convection
N. The return flow is driving upper level moisture S from the S
Bahamas to Haiti to N Colombia.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere. Strong E to SE winds are possible over the
Gulf of Honduras by late Thu between the high pressure and
troughing west of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated moderate convection is between the Bahamas and Cuba. A
broad surface ridge across the east-central Atlantic is anchored
by a 1026 mb high centered near 29N44W and a 1028 mb high near
32N29W. The gradient between Alberto and the mid-Atlantic ridge
is producing fresh southerly winds W of 76W. These winds will
diminish during the next six hours.

Expect a cold front to reach near 30N in the central Atlantic on
Thursday. The tail end of this front will then move east Friday
with isolated convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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