[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290850
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Depression Alberto is inland over Alabama near 31.4N
86.3W. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt,
with a minimum pressure of 996 mb. See latest NHC forecast/
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more
details.

Heavy rain and numerous showers continue across Cuba, adding to
the 10 to 18 inches of rainfall that fell during the passage of
Subtropical Storm Alberto over the weekend. Widespread flooding
and the potential for landslides in rugged terrain will remain a
concern throughout Cuba through Tuesday night.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is south of 13N along 40W moving W at 15 kt. The
wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery.
Isolated moderate convection is within 120 NM of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 02N32W to 03N39W,
then west of the tropical wave to the coast of Brazil near
00N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of
the ITCZ axis between 28W and 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft associated with Alberto
are north of 28N along the Gulf coasts of Alabama and Florida.
Winds and seas in the NE Gulf of Mexico will rapidly diminish
overnight as it moves further inland.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds in the central Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds in the western Gulf waters will
diminish through Tuesday night as high pressure builds across
the eastern Gulf. Fair weather will continue west of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate convection is over Central America from
Honduras to Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds are over the W
Caribbean, and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the central and E
Caribbean E of 80W.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the central Caribbean through the week.
The strongest winds are expected the coast of Colombia. A strong
trough will move from the NW Caribbean to the Yucatan Peninsula
Wed through early Fri with associated increasing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are between the Bahamas and Cuba. A broad
ridge across the east-central Atlantic is anchored by a 1026 mb
high centered near 30N43W and a 1028 mb high near 35N25W. The
gradient between Alberto and the mid-Atlantic ridge is producing
fresh southerly winds W of 76W. These winds will diminish during
the next 12-24 hours.

Expect a cold front to reach near 30N in the central Atlantic on
Thursday. The tail end of this front will then move east Friday
and Saturday with isolated convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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