[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Alberto centered near 19.9N 85.6W at 26/0900
UTC moving NNE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Alberto is interacting with an upper trough, and remains
deeply sheared. Thunderstorm activity has diminished slightly
recently, and is displaced well to the east of the low level
center. However, widespread showers and thunderstorms persist over
Cuba, South Florida, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico on the east
side of the upper trough. The forecast calls for gradual
development as Alberto moves northward into the south central Gulf
of Mexico, as either a tropical or subtropical storm. See latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 13N
southward. The wave shows up well in lower level precipitable
water imagery. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong
rainshowers are from 03N to 07N between 13W and 25W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, moving across
Suriname. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N southward
between 50W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to
00N40W. Scattered convection is observed from 04S to 02N between
30W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough extends from the north central Gulf of
Mexico, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, into the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

Alberto will intensify while moving northward, reaching 21.6N
85.1W this afternoon with wind speeds of 35 kt gusting to 45 kt.
Alberto will transition to a tropical cyclone Sun afternoon
centered near 26.2N 85.9W with wind speeds of 50 kt gusting to 60
kt, near 27.5N 86.8W Mon night with wind speeds of 55 kt gusting
to 65 kt, then near the coast off the western Florida Panhandle
and the coast of Alabama late Tuesday.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from north central Gulf of Mexico,
across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from
16N to 18N between 16W and 18W.

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Alberto move through the Yucatan Channel into the south central
Gulf today, with winds and seas decreasing in the western
Caribbean Sea thereafter. High pressure in the central Atlantic
will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean
Sea through early next week, with strongest winds along the coast
of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected S of 25N through Monday,
pulsing to fresh to strong offshore of northern Hispaniola during
the afternoon through evening hours each day. SE to S winds will
increase to fresh to locally strong W of 77W from Saturday night
through Sunday night. The pressure gradient will tighten between
Subtropical Storm Alberto in the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure
elsewhere. Those conditions should improve by Tue as the pres
gradient slackens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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