[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
116 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Alberto, at 26/0300 UTC, is near
19.4N 85.7W, or about 175 km SE of Cozumel, Mexico, and about 290
SSW of the western tip of Cuba. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35
knots with gusts to 45 knots. It is moving eastward or 90 degrees
4 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are in Cuba. isolated moderate rainshowers
cover the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the
Bahamas, from Cuba northward between 73W and 88W. The forecast
calls for gradual development as Alberto moves northward into the
south central Gulf of Mexico, as either a tropical or subtropical
storm. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES about Subtropical Storm Alberto are
being listed under the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC, and under the AWIPS
header MIATCPAT1. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES about Subtropical Storm
Alberto are being listed under the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and
under the AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 13N
southward. The wave was showing up well in earlier lower level PW
imagery. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong rainshowers are from 03N to 07N between 11W and 15W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, moving across
Suriname. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from
10N southward between 50W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 07N20W, and to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N26W to 01S30W, to the Equator along 41W, to 01S39W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
from 07N southward between 50W and 60W. isolated moderate
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough extends from the north central Gulf of
Mexico, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, into the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

Alberto will intensify while moving northward, reaching 22.5N
85.7W Sat afternoon with wind speeds of 45 kt gusting to 55 kt.
Alberto will transition to a tropical cyclone Sun afternoon
centered near 26.8N 86.2W with wind speeds of 55 kt gusting to 65
kt, near 29.0N 87.8W Mon afternoon with wind speeds of 55 kt
gusting to 65 kt, then inland near 31.7N 88.6W Tuesday afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from north central Gulf of Mexico,
across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
rainshowers are from 16N to 18N between 16W and 18W.

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Alberto will move to 20.7N 85.4W on Saturday morning, moving into
the Gulf of Mexico near 22.9N 85.1W on Saturday evening, with
winds and seas decreasing in the western Caribbean Sea thereafter.
High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through early
next week, with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected S of 25N through Monday,
pulsing to fresh to strong offshore of northern Hispaniola during
the afternoon through evening hours each day. SE to S winds will
increase to fresh to locally strong W of 77W from Saturday night
through Sunday night. The pressure gradient will tighten between
Subtropical Storm Alberto in the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure
elsewhere. Those conditions should improve by Tue as the pres
gradient slackens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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