[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
118 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Alberto centered near 21.6N 84.9W at 26/1500
UTC moving north at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Alberto is interacting with an upper trough, supporting
widespread showers and thunderstorms over the northwest Caribbean,
western and central Cuba and the southeast Gulf of Mexico through
South Florida. The stronger winds on the northeast side of the
center of Alberto are commencing in the southeast Gulf north of
western Cuba, allowing seas to build. The forecast calls for
gradual development as Alberto moves northward across the central
Gulf of Mexico late Mon, making landfall along the north central
Gulf coast by early Tue. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W south of 15N.
The wave shows up well in lower level precipitable water imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near this tropical wave and
along the monsoon trough from 02N to 06N between 15W and 30W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to 01S45W.
Scattered convection is observed from 02N to 06N between 15W and
30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

An sharp negatively tilted upper level trough extends from the
lower Mississippi Valley to over the Yucatan Channel. Scattered
convection remains active over the eastern Gulf, on the side of
this trough, with deep layer dry air west of the trough axis. Seas
are likely 6 to 9 ft over the southeast Gulf and building ahead of
Alberto's approach. Moderate to fresh SE winds are noted over the
northeast Gulf, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Light winds with 1 to 3 ft
seas are noted over the western Gulf. Fresh southerly flow will
persist over the eastern Gulf through mid week in the wake of
Alberto.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from north central Gulf of Mexico,
across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from
16N to 18N between 16W and 18W.

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Alberto is moving through the Yucatan Channel into the south
central Gulf. Winds and seas will decreasing in the far northwest
Caribbean Sea in the wake of Alberto. High pressure in the
central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the
central Caribbean Sea through mid week, with strongest winds along
the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected S of 25N through Monday,
pulsing to fresh to strong offshore of northern Hispaniola during
the afternoon through evening hours each day. The pressure
gradient will tighten between Alberto in the eastern Gulf and high
pressure east of the area, resulting in fresh to strong SE to S
winds W of 77W tonight through Sunday night. Those conditions
should improve slightly by Tue as the pres gradient slackens
after Alberto moves inland over the northern Gulf coast.

Farther east, persistent high pressure centered near the Azores
will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic, with fresh northerly winds off the
North African coast north of 15N, with 5 to 7 ft seas across the
region.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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