[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
758 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
An upper level low is interacting with a weak 1012 mb surface low
near 25N86W and a N-S oriented surface trough that extends from
the low to near 30N84W. This feature supports scattered moderate
convection and numerous showers E of 87W, including the Florida
Straits and Florida Peninsula. This system will enhance rainfall
across parts of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during
the next few days as it drifts slowly northward. There is
currently a low chance for this system to develop into a tropical
cyclone within the next 48 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to
03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm of either side of the ITCZ axis
between 14W and 34W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N to
05N between 34W and 51W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A complex low pressure system is over the eastern Gulf producing
heavy rainfall. Please see the special features section for more
details. Mainly moderate cyclonic flow covers the eastern Gulf.
High pressure over the southern United States extends southwest to
the NW Gulf coast and is producing mainly moderate easterly flow
over the western Gulf. Little change is expected over the western
Gulf over the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with the strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia, and the weakest winds over
the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW
Caribbean associated with the eastern extension of the Pacific
Monsoon Trough. The combination of an upper level trough over the
NW Caribbean and abundant mid to upper level moisture over the
region is supporting scattered to numerous showers over much of
the central Caribbean, including Cuba and Hispaniola. Fresh to
strong tradewinds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea
through Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is supporting
scattered moderate convection over the central and NW Bahamas and
the Florida offshore waters. A broad area of high pressure
centered near the Azores dominates the remainder of the waters N
of 10N.

The high pressure ridge will maintain moderate winds N of 25N and
fresh winds S of 25N through Thu. Low pres over the NE Gulf of
Mexico will tighten the pressure gradient over the waters N of the
Bahamas from 27N- 29N between 77W-79W tonight. Fresh to strong SE
winds are expected during this time frame over this area as a
result. Winds N of Hispaniola will pulse from fresh to strong from
afternoon to late evening each day through Thu. The area of
strong winds N of Hispaniola will expand northward to as far as
23N by Sat as the high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic
gradually strengthens and low pressure over northern South America
deepens slightly.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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