[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

An upper level low is interacting with a poorly defined 1012 mb
surface low near 25N86W and a NE-SW oriented surface trough that
extends from 22N87W through the low to near 29N84W. This feature
supports scattered moderate convection and numerous showers E of
87W, including the Florida Straits and Florida Peninsula. This
system will enhance rainfall across parts of Florida and the
northeastern Gulf Coast during the next few days as it drifts
slowly northward. There is currently a low chance for this system
to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to
03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N to 06N between 10W and 51W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A complex low pressure system is over the eastern Gulf producing
heavy rainfall and will be the main weather producer over the
eastern Gulf the next few days. Please see the special features
section for more details. Mainly moderate cyclonic flow covers the
eastern Gulf, except stronger near thunderstorms. High pressure
over the southern United States extends southwest to the NW Gulf
coast and is producing mainly moderate easterly flow over the
western Gulf. The only exception is moderate to fresh winds
associated with a thermally induced surface trough that is over
the bay of Campeche. This trough is void of convection. This
trough will weaken through the day and redevelop over the Yucatan
Peninsula later this evening. The trough will move offshore
tonight over the Bay of campeche bringing with it a return of
fresh winds. This pattern will continue to repeat itself through
this week. Otherwise, little change is expected over the western
Gulf over the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean associated
with the eastern extension of the Pacific Monsoon Trough. The
combination of an upper level trough over the NW Caribbean and
abundant mid to upper level moisture over the region is supporting
scattered to numerous showers over much of the central Caribbean,
including Cuba and Hispaniola. High pressure over the Atlantic is
helping to produce moderate tradewinds over the northern
Caribbean, and mainly fresh tradewinds over the southern
Caribbean. Winds over the southern Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia will pulse to strong at night the next few nights,
expanding to include the south central coast of Hispaniola by
midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper low and surface trough/low over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico is supporting scattered moderate convection over the
central and NW Bahamas and the Florida offshore waters W of 75W. A
broad area of high pressure centered near the Azores dominates
the remainder of the waters N of 10N. The pressure gradient
between the high pressure and lower pressure associated with the
Gulf of Mexico trough/low supports fresh SE winds over the
central and NW Bahamas and nearby waters. Gentle to moderate winds
cover the Atlantic between 27N and 31N. Moderate to fresh
tradewinds cover the Atlantic S of 27N.

The high pressure ridge will maintain these winds through Thu,
except with winds increasing over the Bahamas and E of north
Florida to fresh to strong tonight. Also, winds N of Hispaniola
will pulse from fresh to strong from afternoon to late evening
each day through Thu. The area of strong winds N of Hispaniola
will expand northward to as far as 23N by Sat as the high pressure
ridge over the western Atlantic gradually strengthens and low
pressure over northern South America deepens slightly.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net