[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140521
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A large area of cloudiness, and rainshowers with thunder, covers
the areas from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, the Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W westward. This weather
is associated with a broad surface low pressure center and
trough, that are interacting with an upper level cyclonic
circulation center. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near
24N85.5W. It is possible that this system may acquire some
subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few
days. This system will enhance rainfall across parts of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next few days. The
Tropical Weather Outlook currently gives this system a low chance
of tropical or subtropical formation.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for AGADIR until 15 May at 0000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to
03N22W, 03N30W, crossing the Equator along 38W, continuing to the
Equator along 41W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern, are from 07N
southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface low pressure center that is in the SE Gulf will
move northward slowly during the week. Rainshowers, some with
thunder, will affect the Gulf waters near and E of the low center
through the week. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 250 mb shows
that an upper level trough will be in the eastern half of the Gulf
of Mexico for much of the next 7 days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Monsoon Trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, across Panama near
08N81W, beyond 07N84W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in Colombia,
Panama, and in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 06N to 12N
from 73W westward.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea through Friday night. NE swell will maintain seas
about 8 feet in the southern part of the tropical North Atlantic
Ocean forecast waters until Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
the rain and the Gulf of Mexico features that may be affecting
the western sections of the Atlantic Ocean.

A first upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N29W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N
northward between 20W and 40W. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate rainshowers are from 30N northward between 25W
and 32W.

A second cyclonic circulation center is near 29N52W. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward
between 40W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers
are N of 24N between 43W and 55W.

Surface high pressure will prevail in the forecast waters through
Friday. Fresh to strong winds will prevail to the north of
Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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