[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 AM EDT Thu May 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough meanders westward across tropical western
Africa, exits along the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, and
extends south-southwestward to near 03N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N20W to 02S45W on the coast of northern Brazil. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is S of 02N to the
equator west of 25W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

1019 mb high pressure remains anchored over the northeast Gulf
near 29N85W, with a ridge extending from the high pressure to the
coast of Texas. The gradient between the high pressure and a
pair of troughs over the northwest Caribbean is allowing fresh
east winds across the Straits of Florida, as noted in a recent
scatterometer pass. Seas in the Straits are likely reaching 6 to
7 ft as a result. A weak pressure pattern is supporting light to
moderate easterly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere. The
southern stream jet remains active on the southeast side of a
sharp upper trough parked over the far northwest Gulf. This is
supporting a few showers and thunderstorms from the Bay of
Campeche across the Yucatan peninsula into the south central Gulf
and approaches to the Yucatan Channel.

The ridge will persist from the western Atlantic across the
northern Gulf into early next week. A weak trough will form over
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings, move offshore the
Peninsula to over the eastern Bay of Campeche overnight through
the mornings, then dissipate in the afternoons.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An elongated trough reaches from near the Isle of Youth to near
San Andres Island. Moderate to fresh trade winds are observed
east of the trough axis with mostly 4 to 6 ft seas, and generally
light northerly flow west of the trough with 2 to 4 ft seas. In
the tropical Atlantic west of 55W, seas are still reaching 8 ft
as noted in various altimeter satellite passes, largely due to
fresh trades and lingering NE to E swell. A few showers are
active along the trough, mainly due to speed convergence of the
stronger winds to the east. A clusters of showers and
thunderstorms is active in the Gulf of Guacanayabo in southwest
Cuba, due in part to divergent flow aloft and convergence of
local drainage flow. A few fast moving showers are active across
the Leeward, Windward and ABC islands in the trade wind flow.

The trough over the western Caribbean will drift westward
through late today before before moving inland across Central
America and dissipating. Moderate to fresh trades will persist
east of the trough, with pulses of fresh to strong trade winds
off northeast Colombia mainly at night. Seas east of Windward
Islands will subside below 8 ft late today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp surface trough, the remnants of an old frontal boundary
lingers from 31N72W to central Cuba. A mid/upper level short wave
trough moving off the Carolinas is supporting a small area of
showers and thunderstorms east of the trough near 26N73W. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass shows fresh SE winds near the
area of convection, but with generally moderate SE flow elsewhere
north of 24N, moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of 24N,
except a pulse of 20 to 25 kt winds of the northern coast of
Hispaniola. Recent buoy and a recent altimeter satellite pass
indicated seas were 5 to 7 ft in open waters east of the Bahamas,
and 3 to 5 ft north of the Bahamas and off the coast of
northeast Florida.

The trough will meander and weaken through early today before
drifting slowly northwest through Sat. A ridge will build from
central Atlantic southwest and across the waters north of 25N
afterward, supporting generally moderate to fresh winds south of
22N east of the Bahamas, but with pulses of fresh to strong winds
off the north coast of Hispaniola mainly at night through late
Sun.

Farther east, the eastern Atlantic is dominated by a large 1029
mb Bermuda- Azores high. The moderate pressure gradient
equatorward of the high is producing tradewinds of 10 to 15 kt N
of 20N and 15 to 20 kt S of 20N. The winds N of 20N support seas
of 5 to 7 ft, while the winds S of 20N support seas of 6 to 8 ft.
No major changes are expected in the pattern across the central
and eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic over the next few
days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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