[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
124 AM EDT Thu May 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough meanders westward across tropical western
Africa, exits along the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, and
extends south-southwestward to near 03N20W. The ITCZ begins near
03N20W and continues to 00N35W to 02S45W on the coast of northern
Brazil. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
S of 05N to the equator between 24W and 53W and from 02N to 06N
between 08W and 16W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends across the SE United States to the
NE Gulf with a high center of 1019 mb near 29N85W. This ridging is
producing a weak northeast- southwest pressure gradient over the
Gulf. Light and variable winds are occurring over the NE Gulf,
with E to SE winds elsewhere over the Gulf basin, as confirmed by
latest scatterometer data and surface observations. Seas are
generally between 2 to 4 ft. No substantial deep convection is
observed tonight over the basin, though some isolated showers and
thunderstorms are occurring over the southern Gulf. A similar
pattern for winds is expected over the next several days.
Increasing moisture and lift related to an incoming surface trough
moving in from the east should boost the chances for deep
convection over the eastern Gulf, Florida, and Cuba by Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating surface trough extends from 20N85W to 17N84W and is
void of deep convection. Another surface trough extends from
south of Cuba at 21N82W southward to 11N80W. The combination of
moisture on the eastern side of the trough and upper level
diffluence is supporting isolated moderate deep convection within
250 nm E of the trough axis. As the trough S of Cuba moves slowly
westward and weakens, enhanced convection is likely over the
western Caribbean and Central America Friday through Sunday. A
weak pressure pattern over the western Caribbean is producing
winds 10 kt or less W of 80W. The pressure gradient between
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over S America is
producing 15 to 20 kt tradewinds over the remainder of the
Caribbean with seas of 4 to 6 ft. As pressures drop in the
southwestern Caribbean, Panama, and Colombia, the tradewinds
respond by reaching up to near gale just north of Colombia
Saturday through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 31N73W south-
southwestward to 26N76W and then transitions to a surface trough
to 23N79W. The combination of the front/trough and a mid- upper
trough moving off the SE United States coast is supporting
scattered moderate deep convection within 270 nm SE of the
front/trough. The remainder of the front will transition to a
surface trough through this morning, and then is anticipated to
move slowly westward during the next few days bringing with it
enhanced precipitation chances over the northwestern Bahamas,
Cuba, and south Florida through Monday. Elsewhere, the tropical
North Atlantic is dominated by a large 1031 mb Bermuda- Azores
high. The moderate pressure gradient equatorward of the high is
producing tradewinds of 10 to 15 kt N of 20N and 15 to 20 kt S of
20N. The winds N of 20N support seas of 5 to 7 ft, while the winds
S of 20N support seas of 6 to 8 ft. No major changes are expected
in the pattern across the central and eastern subtropical and
tropical Atlantic over the next few days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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