[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Wed May 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough meanders westward across tropical western
Africa, exits along the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, and
extends south-southwestward to near 03N19W. The ITCZ begins near
03N19W and continues to 03S43W on the coast of northern Brazil.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm
of either side of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the Carolinas along with a weak
northeast-southwest pressure gradient over the Gulf. The resulting
east to southeast winds are generally 15 kt or weaker. The only
exception to the E-SE flow is light and variable winds associated
with a surface trough extending from 29N88W to 24N87W. No
substantial deep convection is observed this evening over the
basin, though some isolated showers are occurring over the
southwestern and central Gulf. While winds should remain
relatively quiescent over the next several days, increasing
moisture and lift related to an incoming surface trough moving in
from the east should boost the chances for deep convection over
the eastern Gulf, Florida, and Cuba by Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening surface trough extends from 21N84W to 17N84W and is
void of deep convection. Another surface trough extends from
south of Cuba at 20N82W southward to 12N79W. This is accompanied
by isolated moderate deep convection within 120 nm E of the trough
axis. Elsewhere isolated moderate deep convection is occurring in
the southwestern Caribbean Sea, associated with the eastward
extent of the northeastern Pacific's monsoon trough. As the
trough S of Cuba moves slowly westward and weakens, enhanced
convection is likely over the western Caribbean and Central
America Friday through Sunday. The tradewinds are weak today, 20
kt or less throughout the Caribbean as seen in buoy, coastal, and
ASCAT scatterometer observations, due to a rather flat pressure
gradient. As pressures drop in the southwestern Caribbean, Panama,
and Colombia, the tradewinds respond by reaching up to near gale
just north of Colombia Saturday through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N73W south-southwestward to
23N80W. The combination of the front and an mid-upper trough
moving off the SE United States coast is supporting scattered
moderate deep convection within 270 nm SE of the front. The front
will transition to a surface trough through tonight, and then is
anticipated to move slowly westward during the next few days
bringing enhanced precipitation chances with it over the
northwestern Bahamas, Cuba, and south Florida through Monday.
Elsewhere, the tropical North Atlantic is dominated by a large
1030 mb Bermuda- Azores high. The moderate pressure gradient
equatorward of the high is producing tradewinds of 20 kt or less.
These winds, away from deep convection, should generally remain
weak during the next few days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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