[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 PM EDT Thu May 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough meanders westward across tropical western
Africa, exits along the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 10N14W, and
extends south-southwestward to near 03N20W. The ITCZ continues
west-southwestward 03N20W to 01N30W, and then extends westward to
01N50W along the coast of northern Brazil. WIdely scattered to
scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 nm either
side of the ITCZ, and within 150 nm along and south of the monsoon
trough.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021-mb High was located over north Florida, with a broad ridge
extending westward along the Gulf coast to eastern Texas. Winds
are southeasterly at 10 to 15 kt west of 92W, with generally
easterly of 10 kt east of 92W. Weakening showers and isolated
thunderstorms were occurring over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico west of the Lower Keys. A weak surface trough with no
shower activity was located over the eastern Bay of Campeche.

The ridge will persist from the western Atlantic across the
northern Gulf into early next week. A weak trough will form over
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening, move offshore the
Peninsula to over the eastern Bay of Campeche overnight through
the morning, then dissipate in the afternoon through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An elongated trough extended from near the Isle of Youth southward
to 16N83W, and continuing sewd to near San Andres Island and to a
weak surface low pressure system located near 10N77W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and within
60 nm of the trough from Cuba southward to 20N. South of 20N, a
narrow line of broken moderate showers was present along the
trough axis to near San Andres. A small cluster of moderate to
strong thunderstorms was occurring within 120 nm west-north-east
of the low. Elsewhere east of 80W, mostly fair weather with only
isolated light showers were occurring.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are observed east of the
trough axis with mostly 4 to 6 ft seas, and generally light
northerly flow west of the trough with 2 to 4 ft seas. In the
tropical Atlantic west of 55W, seas are still reaching 8 ft as
noted in various altimeter satellite passes, largely due to fresh
trades and lingering NE to E swell.

The trough over the western Caribbean will drift westward
through late today before before moving inland across Central
America on Friday, and dissipating by Saturday. Moderate to fresh
trades will persist east of the trough, with pulses of fresh to
strong trade winds off northeast Colombia mainly at night. Seas
east of Windward Islands will subside below 8 ft late today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, the remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends
from 31N77W southwestward to the central Bahamas and continuing
to west-central Cuba near 23N80W. A narrow band of moderate to
strong showers and isolated thunderstorms were occurring along the
trough over the Straits of Florida west of 80W. Isolated moderate
showers were occurring over much of the central Bahamas.

Generally SE flow of 10 kt was noted SE of the trough to 60W,
becoming easterly E of 60W. West of the trough, winds were
generally N at 10 kt. Elsewhere east of 60W, the eastern Atlantic
is dominated by a large 1029-mb subtropical High. Seas were 5 to
7 ft in open waters east of the Bahamas, and 3 to 5 ft north of
the Bahamas and off the coast of northeast Florida.

The trough will meander and weaken through today before drifting
slowly northwest Friday and Saturday. A ridge will build from the
central Atlantic southwestward across the waters north of 25N
through Friday, producing generally moderate to fresh winds south
of 22N east of the Bahamas, but with pulses of fresh to strong
winds off the north coast of Hispaniola mainly at night through
late Sunday.

The moderate pressure gradient equatorward of the high is producing
tradewinds of 10 to 15 kt N of 20N and 15 to 20 kt S of 20N. The
winds N of 20N support seas of 5 to 7 ft, while the winds S of 20N
support seas of 6 to 8 ft. No major changes are expected in the
pattern across the central and eastern subtropical and tropical
Atlantic over the next few days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Stewart
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