[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 PM EDT Mon May 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to
03N28W to 01S35W to 01S44W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered
moderate to strong showers were occurring within 150 nm either
side of the ITCZ west of 25W and continuing to the Brazil coast.
Scattered moderate thunderstorms were occurring within 150 nm
within 02N22W and have been weakening over ther past 6 hours.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad mid-latitude trough moving across the southeastern U.S.
and the ern Gulf of Mexico is moving ewd at 20 to 25 kt. Ahead of
this mid- to upper-level trough, a weak cold front was draped
across southern Florida and extended southwestward to near Naples,
and then continued into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near
24N85W, before turning westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico
near 24N98W. The cold front is expected to weaken further as it
drifts southward through tonight. Building high pressure across
the northern and central Gulf will support gentle to moderate N to
NE winds through Tuesday night. Winds in the basin gradually will
veer to SE by Thursday night. A weak thermal trough will move
westward across the ern Bay of Campeche from the Yucatan Peninsula
today and Tuesday, then dissipate during the afternoon each day
beginning on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough extends from central Cuba southward along
80W to 15N latitude. Behind the trough, winds are northerly at 10
kt; east of the trough axis, winds are generally easterly at 10 to
15 kt. A narrow band of scattered to numerous thunderstorms were
occurring east of trough from ern Cuba swwd to Jamaica and
continuing over the central Caribbean. This activity has persisted
ahead of an upper-level shortwave trough moving out of the wrn
Caribbean and into the central portion of the basin. Elsewhere,
mostly fair skies prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front enters the basin near 32N77W and extends swwd
to near Stuart, Florida. No shower activity is currently associated
with the front. However, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the cold front over South Florida later
this afternoon, and then move eastward over the waters of the far
western Atlantic, the Bahamas, and Straits of Florida by this
evening. The the weak cold front will move slowly SE, and reach
from near 31N77W to western Cuba by early Monday afternoon, then
from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas to west-central Cuba early
Tuesday. A weak surface trough is located just ahead of the front
and extends southward from the nwrn Bahamas to central Cuba.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were occurring along
the trough. Fresh to strong southerly winds will precede the front
N of 27N through late Monday afternoon. The front will weaken on
Wednesday and Thursday, and then dissipate on Friday. A high
pressure center will move SE from the U.S.A. to 31N75W on Thursday
night, then to near 30N70W on Friday, but ridge W to near 30N80W.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Stewart
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