[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
808 PM EDT Mon May 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to
02S45W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 03N between 11W and 18W, and from 02S to 04N
between 30W and 45W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad mid-latitude trough moving across the southeastern U.S.
is moving eastern at 20 to 25 kt. Ahead of this mid- to upper-
level trough, a weak cold front extended from southwest Florida to
near 23N94W. The cold front is expected to weaken further as it
drifts southward through tonight. Building high pressure across
the northern and central Gulf will support gentle to moderate N to
NE winds through Tuesday night. Winds in the basin gradually will
veer to SE by Thursday night. A weak thermal trough will move
westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche from the Yucatan
Peninsula today and Tuesday, then dissipate during the afternoon
each day beginning on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough persists from central Cuba southward along
80W to 15N latitude. Behind the trough, winds are northerly at 10
kt; east of the trough axis, winds are generally easterly at 10 to
15 kt. From 15N to 17N between 75W and 78W. This activity has
persisted ahead of an upper- level shortwave trough moving out of
the western Caribbean and into the central portion of the basin.
Elsewhere, mostly fair skies prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front enters the basin near 32N75W and extends
southwestward to West Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are ongoing within 180 nm to 270 nm ahead of the
front. The the weak cold front will move slowly SE, and reach
from near 31N77W to western Cuba by early Monday afternoon, then
from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas to west-central Cuba early
Tuesday. A weak surface trough is located just ahead of the front
and extends southward from the northwestern Bahamas to central
Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were occurring
along the trough. Fresh to strong southerly winds will precede the
front N of 27N through late Monday afternoon. The front will
weaken on Wednesday and Thursday, and then dissipate on Friday. A
high pressure center will move SE from the U.S.A. to 31N75W on
Thursday night, then to near 30N70W on Friday, but ridge W to near
30N80W.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Stewart/Christensen
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