[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 AM EDT Mon May 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America,
and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.
The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather
observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad upper-level trough extends ene-to-wsw from 13N83W in the
Caribbean Sea, across the Lesser Antilles, to 27N35W in the
Atlantic Ocean. Another broad mid- to upper-level trough extends
southward out of the mid-latitudes of the eastern U.S. across the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico to wrn Cuba and Nicaragua. A
surface trough extends from the east coast of Florida southward
through central Cuba to 12N80W in the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N18W and 03N27W. The ITCZ continues from
03N27W, crossing the Equator along 32W, to 02S37W and 02S44W along
the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate to strong showers and a
few thunderstorms were occurring within 150 nm either side of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 18W and continuing to the Brazil
coast.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front was located across central Florida and extended
southwestward to near Ft. Myers, and then continued into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 24N87W, before turning westward
across the southern Gulf of Mexico near 24N98W. The cold front is
expected to weaken further as it drifts southward through tonight.
Building high pressure across the northern and central Gulf will
support gentle to moderate N to NE winds through Tuesday night.
Winds in the basin gradually will veer to SE by Thursday night.
A weak thermal trough will move across the eastern Bay of Campeche
from the Yucatan Peninsula during the morning hours, then
dissipate during the afternoon each day beginning on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about the upper-level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near
Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida.

The surface trough that is part of the SPECIAL FEATURES section
will dissipate by Thursday. An upper-level trough that extends
e-to-w across from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua will gradually
shift eastward. Scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms
on the SE side of the trough.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near
Cuba and the Bahamas and Florida.

A weak cold front located just offshore the coast of Georgia
extends southward and southwestward into central Florida near Cape
Canaveral. Although no shower activity is currently associated
with the front, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the cold front over South Florida later this
afternoon, and then move offshore over the waters of the far
western Atlantic, the Bahamas, and Straits of Florida by this
evening. The the weak cold front will move slowly SE, and reach
from near 31N77W to western Cuba by early Monday afternoon, then
from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas to west-central Cuba
early Tuesday. Fresh to strong southerly winds will precede the
front N of 27N through late Monday afternoon. The front will
weaken on Wednesday and Thursday, and then dissipate on Friday. A
high pressure center will move SE from the U.S.A. to 31N75W on
Thursday night, then to near 31N70W on Friday, but ridge W to near
30N80W.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Stewart
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