[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 AM EDT Mon May 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the area
that runs from 12N in the Caribbean Sea to 27N in the Atlantic
Ocean between 69W and 80W. A few individual cyclonic circulation
centers are in the larger area of broad cyclonic wind flow. The
cyclonic wind flow covers Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and the
Bahamas, and the nearby waters. A surface trough is along 28N81W
in Florida, through 22N81W in Cuba, to 16N80W and 12N80W in the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers from 15N to Jamaica between 75W and 78W. rainshowers
are possible elsewhere from 27N in the Atlantic Ocean into the
Caribbean Sea between the Mona Passage along 67W/68W and 84W. This
feature was forecast by the computer models at the beginning of
the week that just ended. The GFS model forecast for 250 mb shows
that the current area of cyclonic wind flow will span the area
that is between 70W and 80W, weaken into a trough, and then move
eastward. An upper level trough will move across the Gulf of
Mexico to Florida. The GFS model fforecast for 500 mb shows that
cyclonic wind flow will remain in the area that is from 17N
southward between 70W and 80W. The area that is from 17N to the
central Bahamas between 70W and 80W will consist of anticyclonic
wind flo. The GFS model, for 700 mb, shows that the trough will be
pushed westward, into the area that extends from the Yucatan
Peninsula to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, by a westward-moving
ridge. The GFS model for the surface shows that a broad trough
will remain in the area from Hispaniola northward between 70W in
the Atlantic Ocean and 80W in the Gulf of Mexico, including
Florida and the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N18W and 03N27W. The ITCZ continues from
03N27W, crossing the Equator along 32W, to 02S37W and 02S44W along
the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 01N to 05N between 16W and 20W, from 01N to
02N between 34W and 36W. isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 05N southward between 20W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the NE sections of Florida, to
the Tampa metropolitan area, into the central sections of the Gulf
of Mexico, to the west central Gulf and the coast of Mexico near
24N98W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 26N
southward. rainshowers are possible in Florida from 26N to 29N.

A surface trough extends from NE Florida, through the Florida Big
Bend, through SE Louisiana, into the upper Texas Gulf coast, to
south Texas.

The current frontal boundary will weaken as it moves slowly
toward the SE Gulf of Mexico through Monday night. Building high
pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of the front, will
support gentle to moderate N to NE winds through Tuesday night.
Winds in the basin gradually will veer to SE by Thursday night.
The high pressure center will enter the western Atlantic Ocean on
Friday, but ridge W across the northern Gulf waters, and maintain
moderate E to SE winds in the basin. A weak thermal trough will
move across the eastern Bay of Campeche from the Yucatan Peninsula
during the morning hours, then dissipate during the afternoon
each day beginning on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about
the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba
and the Bahamas and Florida.

The current surface trough, that is part of the SPECIAL FEATURES
section, will dissipate by Thursday. An upper level trough, that
stretches from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua, gradually will shift
ESE, weaken into a trough, and reach eastern Caribbean by Tuesday
night. Expect scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms
on the SE side of the trough.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about
the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba
and the Bahamas and Florida.

A stationary front passes through SE South Carolina and SE Georgia
beyond the NE part of Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the area that is from 27N northward from 75W
westward.

An upper level trough extends from a 31N10W Morocco cyclonic
circulation center, to 27N26W, through 27N36W, to a 20N46W and
15N52W. Precipitation: no significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

The current frontal boundary from South Carolina to Florida will
move slowly SE, and reach from near 31N77W to western Cuba by
early Monday afternoon, then from near 31N74W to the central
Bahamas to west- central Cuba early Tuesday. Fresh to strong
southerly winds will precede the front N of 27N through late
Monday afternoon. The front will weaken on Wednesday and Thursday,
and then dissipate on Friday. A high pressure center will move SE
from the U.S.A. to 31N75W on Thursday night, then to near 31N70W
on Friday, but ridge W to near 30N80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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