[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 AM EDT Sun May 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad mid to upper-level low pressure system is centered over SE
Cuba near 22N78W. A trough extends SW from the center of the low
across the Caribbean to the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
Divergent upper-level winds on the E side of this system are
supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over
the Dominican Republic between 15N and 22N between 69W and 73W as
well as near Jamaica and over SE Cuba and the SE Bahamas within 90
nm either side of a line from 25N74W to 16N79W. Shower coverage on
the E side of this system has begun to decrease. That trend is
expected to continue as model guidance is in agreement in
weakening this system during the next couple of days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 02N20W and 01N26W. The ITCZ continues from
01N26W, crossing the Equator along 27W, to 03S32W and 04S38W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from
01N to 04N between 20W and 26W. isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from the line 08N12W 07N30W
07N53W southward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
from 07W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the north central and NW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the
line that runs from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

The current frontal boundary will move across the northern Gulf
waters through Sunday, and exit from the eastern Gulf on Sunday
evening. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
support gentle to moderate N to NE winds through Tuesday night.
The winds in the basin will veer from NE to E from Wednesday
through Thursday, except for SE to S in the far western Gulf in
return flow as the high pressure center shifts toward the NE Gulf
of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about
the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba
and the Bahamas and Florida.

The 80W surface trough, that is associated with the SPECIAL
FEATURES section, supports fresh to strong E to SE winds in the
eastern Caribbean Sea. These winds gradually will become fresh,
and back to the E from Sunday through Tuesday, as the trough
heads WNW and weakens and strong Atlantic Ocean high pressure
weakens slowly. The large upper-level cyclonic circulation center
that is on top of Cuba will trigger showers and thunderstorms
in the central and easter Caribbean Sea through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about
the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba
and the Bahamas and Florida.

An upper level trough extends from a 30N15W cyclonic circulation
center, just to the north of the Canary Islands, through 25N28W,
to a 22N48W cyclonic circulation center, to 19N58W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area
that is from 22N to 25N between 40W and 50W.

The current 80W/81W surface trough will remain near the Florida
Peninsula and gradually weaken through Monday night. A weak cold
front will enter the waters N of the Bahamas on Sun night, then
push slowly SE to the NW Bahamas by Tuesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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