[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT Sun May 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the Caribbean
Sea side of Cuba along 78W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow that
is moving around the circulation center covers the area from SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean between
68W in the Caribbean Sea and 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 84W in
the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 80W/81W from 20N
northward, and from 20N81W to 15N80W and 11N77W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the
areas from 15N in the Caribbean Sea to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean
between 70W and 80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere
from 14N southward from 74W westward in the SW part of the
Caribbean Sea, and elsewhere from 15N northward in the Caribbean
Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean from 68W westward. This feature was
forecast by the computer models at the beginning of the week. The
GFS model forecast, for 250 mb and 500 mb, shows that the current
cyclonic circulation center will stay on top of Cuba, weaken into
a trough, and then move eastward. An upper level trough will move
across the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida. The GFS model, from the
surface to 700 mb, shows that a broad trough will remain in the
area between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the Gulf of
Mexico, including in the Caribbean Sea, during the next few days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 02N20W and 01N26W. The ITCZ continues from
01N26W, crossing the Equator along 27W, to 03S32W and 04S38W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from
01N to 04N between 20W and 26W. isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from the line 08N12W 07N30W
07N53W southward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
from 07W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the north central and NW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the
line that runs from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

The current frontal boundary will move across the northern Gulf
waters through Sunday, and exit from the eastern Gulf on Sunday
evening. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
support gentle to moderate N to NE winds through Tuesday night.
The winds in the basin will veer from NE to E from Wednesday
through Thursday, except for SE to S in the far western Gulf in
return flow as the high pressure center shifts toward the NE Gulf
of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about
the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba
and the Bahamas and Florida.

The 80W surface trough, that is associated with the SPECIAL
FEATURES section, supports fresh to strong E to SE winds in the
eastern Caribbean Sea. These winds gradually will become fresh,
and back to the E from Sunday through Tuesday, as the trough
heads WNW and weakens and strong Atlantic Ocean high pressure
weakens slowly. The large upper-level cyclonic circulation center
that is on top of Cuba will trigger showers and thunderstorms
in the central and easter Caribbean Sea through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about
the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba
and the Bahamas and Florida.

An upper level trough extends from a 30N15W cyclonic circulation
center, just to the north of the Canary Islands, through 25N28W,
to a 22N48W cyclonic circulation center, to 19N58W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area
that is from 22N to 25N between 40W and 50W.

The current 80W/81W surface trough will remain near the Florida
Peninsula and gradually weaken through Monday night. A weak cold
front will enter the waters N of the Bahamas on Sun night, then
push slowly SE to the NW Bahamas by Tuesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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