[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 PM EDT Sun May 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 04N20W and 02N29W. The ITCZ continues from
02N29W, cross the Equator along 33W to 01S40W and 0N51W.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 0N to 09N
between 05W and 13W and from 0N to 05N between 17W and 32W. Scattered
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 06S to 05N W of 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad middle to upper level trough over the eastern CONUS with
base along the northern gulf supports a weak cold front that
extends from the coast of Florida near 29N82W to the central basin
near 24N90W to NE Mexico near 24N97W. Shallow moisture in the
vicinity of the front supports isolated showers within 150 nm
west of the front and scattered heavy showers over central Florida
and the SE basin. Showers in the SE gulf are being enhanced by a
pre-frontal trough that extends from Tampa Bay to 24N83W and
across western Cuba into the NW Caribbean.

The front will continue to move SE and exit the basin Monday night
while a ridge builds across the basin in its wake. Gentle to
moderate N to NE winds are forecast through Tuesday night then will
veer from NE to E from Wednesday through Thursday, except for SE
to S in the far western Gulf in return flow as the high pressure
center shifts toward the NE Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level low centered over Cuba continue to support
scattered to isolated heavy showers over eastern Cuba, the
Windward Passage, Jamaica and Hispaniola. The low is forecast to
become a trough by early Monday, however divergent winds aloft on
the E side of the trough will continue to support similar
convection in the same region through Wed. Light to gentle
variable winds are in the NW and SW basin while strong high
pressure in the Atlc centered near 31N55W support fresh to strong
winds in the central and eastern Caribbean. These winds
gradually will become fresh as strong Atlantic Ocean high pressure
weakens slowly.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough starting to move over the SW N Atlc along
with a middle to upper level low centered over Cuba support
unstable conditions across the central and eastern Bahamas. This
is leading to the development of scattered to isolated strong
rainshowers and tstms S of 28N between 69W and 76W. Isolated
showers are off the NE coast of Florida associated with the
advancement of a weak cold front and a pre-frontal trough across
the northern half of Florida. A strong surface ridge anchored by a
1030 mb high near 31N55W covers the remainder basin N of 10N, thus
supporting stable conditions. The cold front will enter the
waters N of the Bahamas tonight, then push slowly SE to the NW
Bahamas by Tuesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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