[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
109 PM EDT Sat May 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

An upper level low is centered over central Cuba near 21N78W.
Upper level cyclonic winds covers the NW Caribbean, Cuba, S
Florida, the Bahamas, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. The east side of
the circulation has a considerable amount of upper level
diffluence enhancing convection. A surface trough extends from the
W Atlantic near 30N79W to central Cuba near 22N80W to the SW
Caribbean near 11N77W. Currently 20-30 kt winds, and 8-12 ft seas
are over the Atlantic in vicinity of the surface trough. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is south of Hispaniola from 14N-19N
between 71W-74W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over
Hispaniola, Bahamas, and the W Atlantic from 19N-29N between 71W-
77W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over central and south
Florida, and the Straits of Florida. Expect the upper level low
to drift south to Jamaica by Sun night. Also expect the surface
trough to move west to the E Gulf of Mexico by Sun.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to
00N30W to Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 01S-03N between 02W-06W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the monsoon trough. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 02S-03N between 30W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from south Louisiana near 29N91W to
Brownsville Texas near 26N97W. Radar imagery shows isolated
moderate convection within 90 nm of the front. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are over the western Bay of Campeche. 15 kt N
winds are N of the front, while the remainder of the Gulf has
10-15 kt E-SE surface flow.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
infomation about the upper level low and surface trough over Cuba
and the Caribbean. In addition, a 1010 mb low is centered over N
Colombia near 09N74W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over Panama and N Colombia. Expect widespread
rainshowers and convection N of 15N between 70W and 80W through
Sunday night. The winds and seas will subside gradually on Monday
and Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Besides the surface trough over the W Atlantic, a 1029 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 32N55W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward, and from 70W eastward.

Expect a cold front to enter the W Atlantic on Monday morning, and
drift to 32N70W on Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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