[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051207
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 AM EDT Sat May 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

An upper level low is centered over central Cuba near 22N78W.
Upper level cyclonic winds covers the NW Caribbean, Cuba, S
Florida, the Bahamas, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. The east side of
the circulation has a considerable amount of upper level
diffluence enhancing convection. A surface trough extends from
the W Atlantic near 30N76W to central Cuba near 22N78W to the SW
Caribbean near 11N77W. Currently 20-30 kt winds, and 8-12 ft seas
are over the Atlantic in vicinity of the surface trough.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of Hispaniola
from 15N-19N between 71W- 77W. Scattered moderate convection is
over Hispaniola and the W Atlantic from 19N-28N between 70W-76W.
Radar imagery shows scattered showers over S Florida and the
Straits of Florida. Expect the upper level low to drift south to
Jamaica by Sun night. Also expect the surface trough to move west
to the E Gulf of Mexico by Sun.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
00N30W to Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from
06N-09N between 11W-16W. Scattered moderate convection is from
03S-01N between 38W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SW Louisiana to Corpus Christi Texas.
Radar imagery shows scattered showers along the front, with a line
of thunderstorms inland over central Louisiana and SE Texas.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the western Bay of Campeche.
Most of the Gulf has 10-15 kt E-SE surface flow.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about
the upper level low, and surface trough, over Cuba and the
Caribbean.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Panama
and N Colombia. Expect widespread rainshowers and convection N of
15N between 70W and 80W through Sunday night. The winds and seas
will subside gradually on Monday and Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward from 70W eastward. A 1028 mb high pressure center is
near 32N55W.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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