[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 AM EDT Sat May 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the Atlantic
Ocean side of Cuba along 78W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow that
is moving around the circulation center covers the area from SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean between
65W in the Atlantic Ocean and 90W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough is along 74W/76W, across SE Cuba and the Bahamas, from 18N
in the Windward Passage to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshoewrs cover the areas from 15N in the Caribbean Sea to 27N
in the Atlantic Ocean between 70W and 78W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 32N in the
Atlantic Ocean between 60W in the Atlantic Ocean and 86W in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, including in parts of Florida. This
feature was forecast by the computer models at the beginning of
the week. The GFS model forecast, for 250 mb and 500 mb, shows
that a cyclonic circulation center will stay on top of Cuba,
weaken into a trough, and then move eastward. An upper level
trough will move across the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida. The GFS
model, from the surface to 700 mb, shows that a trough will move
westward from its present position on top of Cuba and the Bahamas,
to Florida, for the next few days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to
the Equator along 25W, to 03S33W to 01S44W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong from 05N to 07N between 16W and 18W.
rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 08N southward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is in the coastal plains of Texas, set to enter the
NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico shortly. A NW-to-SE oriented
trough spans Mexico and parts of Central America to Nicaragua.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers are in Mexico from 17N to 25N between 97W and
101W. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds
cover the Gulf of Mexico from 22N northward from 90W westward.

The current Texas cold front will enter the NW Gulf today, and
then dissipate along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas by Saturday
night. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds will prevail elsewhere
through Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about
the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba
and the Bahamas.

Fresh easterly winds will prevail in the eastern Caribbean Sea
and in the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean through Sunday night.
The upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of Cuba.
Expect widespread rainshowers with thunder N of 15N between 70W
and 80W through Sunday night. The winds and seas will subside
gradually on Monday and Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about
the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba
and the Bahamas.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward from 70W eastward. A 1028 mb high pressure center is
near 32N55W.

The current surface trough, the subject of the SPECIAL FEATURE
section, will drift westward and amplify on Saturday, as it
interacts with the upper level cyclonic circulation center.
The trough will move over southern Florida during the day on
Saturday. Widespread rainshowers, some with embedded thunder,
fresh to strong winds, and building seas are expected in the
vicinity of the trough through Sunday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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