[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sat May 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the Atlantic
Ocean side of Cuba along 78W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow that
is moving around the circulation center covers the area from SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean between
65W in the Atlantic Ocean and 90W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough is along 80W from 20N northward, and from 20N80W to 16N80W
and 10N77W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers cover the areas from 14N in the Caribbean Sea
to 32N in the Atlantic Ocean between 68W and 80W. This feature was
forecast by the computer models at the beginning of the week. The
GFS model forecast, for 250 mb and 500 mb, shows that a cyclonic
circulation center will stay on top of Cuba, weaken into a trough,
and then move eastward. An upper level trough will move across
the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida. The GFS model, from the surface
to 700 mb, shows that a trough will move westward from its
present position on top of Cuba and the Bahamas, to Florida, for
the next few days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W, to 01N30W
01N43W, and to the Equator along 50W at the coast of Brazil.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from
03N northward between the Prime Meridian and 03W. widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N
southward between 10W and 32W. isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 08N southward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving through the north central and NW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico shortly. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from
the Florida Panhandle into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

The current cold front will move across the northern gulf waters
through Sunday and exit the eastern gulf Sun night evening. High
pressure building in the wake of the front will support gentle to
moderate north to northeast winds over the area. These winds will
change little through Tue night before becoming northeast to east
in direction Wed through Thu, except for southeast to south winds
over the far western gulf in return flow as the high pressure
shifts to the northeast gulf.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about
the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba
and the Bahamas.

A tight surface pressure gradient between strong central Atlantic
high pressure and a surface trough along 80W is providing for
strong E to SE winds over the eastern half of the central
Caribbean as well as over the western half of the eastern
Caribbean. These winds will gradually diminish to fresh winds and
become more E in direction Sun through Tue as the trough pulls off
to the west- northwest while weakening and as the strong Atlantic
high pressure weakens some. The combination of a large upper low
over central Cuba, that is slowly moving south, and plenty of
moisture and instability to its southeast will continue to bring
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the eastern
section of the central Caribbean through Mon. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over much of the eastern are expected
to continue through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about
the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba
and the Bahamas.

The current north-to-south oriented surface trough will continue
inland across the Florida peninsula this evening, and through Sun.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh
to strong winds and seas to 10 ft are expected mainly to the east
of the trough, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will precede the trough. A weak cold front will enter the waters N
of the Bahamas Sun evening and merge with the northern portion of
the surface trough. The front will slow down as it reaches from
near 31N78W to western Cuba Mon afternoon, then become stationary
from near 31N75W to west-central Cuba late Mon night through Thu
as it weakens. Weak low pres is expected to track northeastward
along the front Mon through Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds
will precede the front over the waters north and northeast of the
Bahamas through Mon night, then diminish to fresh winds late Mon
night. The front will begin to slowly dissipate through Thu as
high pressure ridging begins to build westward along 31N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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