[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311702
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia on the coast of Africa
near 05N10W to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 00N23W to
01S37W to the coast of Brazil near 01N51W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 05W
and 15W...from 03S to 01N between 34W and 42W and from 01S to 03N
between 46W and 51W. Scattered moderate convection is present from
01N to 03N between 19W and 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from Ft Myers Florida to
24N87W to 22N92W, then continues as a stationary front through the
bay of Campeche to 21N93W to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec near
19N93W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed
along and up to 60 nm SE of the cold front N of 24N. Cloudiness
and patchy rain are found along and up to 90 nm NW of the cold
front N of 24N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring within 60 nm of the stationary front S of 22N. A surface
ridge extends SW from Louisiana across the NW Gulf and along the
NE coast of Mexico to near Veracruz. Expect the entire front to
stall from the central Florida coast to the Bay of Campeche today,
then weaken tonight. Strong N winds are expected behind the front
along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz through this evening. As
the front stalls and weakens, winds over the Gulf will subside.
The high pres ridge over the NW Gulf will shift east through Tue,
allowing winds over the Gulf to veer from NE to E today to SE on
Tue. Weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan
Peninsula each day, then shift W over the Bay of Campeche during
the evening. However, winds in the vicinity of these troughs are
only expected to be moderate to fresh.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for
the next few days. Gentle to moderate trades are forecast
elsewhere through Wed night. Winds will slightly subside during
this time frame as the ridge weakens slightly. Relatively dry
weather will continue over the basin for the next couple days as
mid to upper- level ridge currently crossing the basin from
Nicaragua and Honduras to Haiti remains overhead.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends SW from 32N74W to near Ft Pierce Florida.
East of the cold front, a weak high pressure ridge with several
centers extends all the way across the Atlantic from near the
Strait of Gibraltar to 31N71W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen along and up to 30 nm SE of the front.
Cloudiness and patchy rain are found along and up to 150 nm NW of
the front. A surface trough extends from 32N53W through weak low
pres 1018 mb centered near 31N54W to 20N58W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms associated with this feature cover an area
from 21N and 23N between 53W and 55W. A weak surface trough
extends SW from 17N56W to just SW of Grenada in the Windward
Islands near 11N63W. This trough only has some cloudiness and
isolated showers associated with it.

The cold front will move a bit farther off the northeast coast of
Florida today, stall north of the Bahamas tonight, and then
dissipate by Monday. Otherwise, The high pressure ridge will
maintain moderate to fresh winds over the tropical Atlantic W of
25W and N of the ITCZ through Mon night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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