[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of
Africa to 07N12W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to
01S32W to 01N42W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 07N
between 10W and 13W...from 01N to 03N between 14W and 23W...from
04S to 00N between 34W and 40W and from 00N to 05N between 48W and
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from Tampa Florida to
24N90W through the bay of Campeche to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
near 18N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
observed primarily north of the front to the east of 88W. A
surface ridge extends SW from Louisiana across the NW Gulf into NE
Mexico. Expect for the front to stall and weaken from the central
Florida coast to the Bay of Campeche today. Fresh to near-gale
force northerly winds are expected behind the front along the
coast of Mexico near Veracruz through this evening. As the front
stalls and weakens. winds over the Gulf will subside.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

A high pressure ridge over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean for the next
few days. Gentle to moderate trades are forecast elsewhere through
Wed night. Winds will slightly subside during this time frame as
the ridge weakens slightly.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak high pressure ridge with several centers extends across
Atlantic. A surface trough extends from 32N51W through weak low
pres 1016 mb near 31N52W to 20N57W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted with this feature between 21N and 23N
between 53W and 55W.

High pressure ridge northeast of the Bahamas will shift east-
northeast through this morning allowing for the winds and seas to
diminish gradually. A cold front will move farther off the
northeast coast of Florida this morning, stall north of the
Bahamas through the day, and then lift north of the area as a warm
front from Sunday through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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