[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia on the coast of Africa
near 07N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 00N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N and east of
18W while scattered showers prevail within 50 nm on either side of
the boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front  front extends across the basin from Ft Myers
Florida to 26N82W to 22N92W to 18N92W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are observed along and up to 60 nm SE of
the front mainly south of 24N including the Yucatan Channel. A
surface ridge extends SW from Louisiana across the NW Gulf and
along the NE coast of Mexico to near Veracruz. Expect the entire
front to weaken tonight. Strong N winds are expected behind the
front along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz through this
evening. As the front continues to weaken, winds over the Gulf
will subside. The high pres ridge over the NW Gulf will shift east
through Tue, allowing winds over the Gulf to veer from NE to E
today to SE on Tue. Weak surface troughing will develop over the
Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift W over the Bay of Campeche
during the evening. However, winds in the vicinity of these
troughs are only expected to be moderate to fresh.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for
the next few days. Gentle to moderate trades are forecast
elsewhere through Wed night. Winds will slightly subside during
this time frame as the ridge weakens slightly. Relatively dry
weather will continue over the basin for the next couple days as
mid to upper-level ridge currently crossing the basin from
Nicaragua and Honduras to Haiti remains overhead.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N75W to 27N80W. Scattered showers are
noted within 200 nm north of the front. East of this boundary, a
weak high pressure ridge with several centers extends all the way
across the Atlantic from near the Strait of Gibraltar to 31N71W.
A 1018 mb surface low is centered near 31N54W with a trough
extending from the low to 20N60W. Scattered showers are expected
mainly along the trough. A weak surface trough extends SW from
19N56W to 13N61W. This trough only has some cloudiness and
isolated showers associated with it.

The cold front will stall north of the Bahamas tonight, and then
dissipate by Monday. Elsewhere, The high pressure ridge will
maintain moderate to fresh winds over the tropical Atlantic W of
25W and N of the ITCZ through Mon night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

CM/ERA
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