[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 PM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

A surface ridge located over the western Atlantic combined with
lower pressures over northern South America to support winds
pulsing to gale-force within 75 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 74W- 76W. These conditions will recur during the evening
and overnight hours for the next few days. Please read the High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This
information also is found at the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N11W to 05N16W. The ITCZ begins
from 05N16W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the ITCZ between 16W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the western portion of the basin from
30N83W to 24N91W then stationary southwest to 19N94W. Scattered
showers prevail along the front mainly north of 26N between 84W-
87W. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across the
remainder of the basin. Expect for the front to stall and weaken
from the central Florida coast to the Bay of Campeche on Saturday.
The southwestern portion of the front in the Bay of Campeche has
already begun to remain stationary. Fresh to near-gale force NW
winds are expected in the Bay of Campeche through late Saturday,
instigated by ridge over eastern central Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning for the waters near the coast of Colombia.

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

High pressure centered north of the area over the west Atlantic
will continue to shift east-northeast through Saturday morning,
allowing the continuation of fresh to strong trade winds in the
south- central Caribbean. Northerly swell will propagate into the
north- central Caribbean throughout the evening as the ridge
remains northeast of the region. Fresh to strong winds will
continue in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic with a 1024 mb
high centered near 30N69W. To the east, a weakening 1014 mb
surface low is located near 24N56W, with a trough extending from
the low to 16N58W. Scattered showers are noted with these
features between 50W-57W. A surface ridge prevails across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near
33N27W.

High pressure northeast of the Bahamas will shift east-northeast
through Saturday morning allowing for the winds and seas to
diminish gradually. A cold front will move off northeast Florida
this evening, stall north of the Bahamas on Saturday, and then
lift north of the area as a warm front from Sunday through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MANOUGIAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net