[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N11W to 05N16W. The ITCZ begins
from 05N16W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the ITCZ between 16W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the western portion of the basin from
29N83W to 25N91W then stationary southwest to 20N95W. A
reinforcing front is located from 30N86W to 26N97W. Scattered to
numerous showers prevail along the front mainly north of 24N. A
surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across the remainder
of the basin. Expect for the front to stall and weaken from the
central Florida coast to the Bay of Campeche on Saturday. The
southwestern portion of the front in the Bay of Campeche has
already begun to remain stationary. Fresh to near- gale force NW
winds are expected in the Bay of Campeche through late Saturday,
instigated by ridge over eastern central Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

High pressure centered north of the area over the west Atlantic
will continue to shift east-northeast through Saturday morning,
allowing the continuation of fresh to strong trade winds in the
south- central Caribbean. Northerly swell will propagate into the
north- central Caribbean throughout the evening as the ridge
remains northeast of the region. Fresh to strong winds will
continue in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic with a 1024 mb
high centered near 30N69W. To the east, a surface trough extends
from 22N56W to 19N55W. Scattered showers are noted with these
features between 50W-57W. A surface ridge prevails across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near
33N27W.

High pressure northeast of the Bahamas will shift east-northeast
through Saturday morning allowing for the winds and seas to
diminish gradually. A cold front will move off northeast Florida
this evening, stall north of the Bahamas on Saturday, and then
lift north of the area as a warm front from Sunday through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/PM
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