[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

A surface ridge anchored over the western Atlantic combines with
lower pressures over northern South America to support winds
pulsing to gale-force within 75 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 74W-76W. These conditions will recur during the evening
and overnight hours for the next few days. Please read the High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This
information also is found at the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N11W to 05N16W. The ITCZ begins
from 05N16W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the ITCZ between 16W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the western portion of the basin from
30N86W to 18N97W. Scattered showers prevail along the front
mainly north of 27N between 84W-90W. A surface ridge extends from
the west Atlantic across the remainder of the basin. Expect for
the front to extend from the Big Bend of Florida to Veracruz
Mexico by this morning, then stalling and weakening from central
Florida to the Bay of Campeche on Saturday. Fresh to near-gale
force NW winds are expected in the Bay of Campeche from this
morning through late Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning for the waters near the coast of Colombia.

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

High pressure centered north of the area over the west Atlantic
will shift east-northeast through Saturday morning, allowing the
continuation of fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean. Minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia
are forecast for this morning. Northerly swell will propagate
into the north-central Caribbean through this morning. Fresh to
strong winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras through the
morning hours today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic anchored by a
1023 mb high centered near 30N72W. To the east, a 1013 mb surface
low is located near 25N57W, with a trough extending from the low
to 18N57W. Scattered showers are noted with these features between
50W-57W. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the
basin anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 36N30W.

High pressure northeast of the Bahamas will shift east-northeast
through Saturday morning allowing for the winds and seas to
diminish gradually. A cold front will move off northeast Florida
this evening, stall north of the Bahamas on Saturday, and then
lift north of the area as a warm front from Sunday through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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