[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
133 PM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is partially in Africa along 14W/16W from 20N
southward. Clouds and precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds from 02N to 17N between 10W and 20W. widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 06N to 10N
between 12W and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/37W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation
appears to be more related to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W/60W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N to 12N
between 56W and 63W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, within 60 nm on either side of the line that
runs from the coast of Panama near 09N78W 11N83W, to 12N86W in
southern Nicaragua.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 95W/96W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 22N
southward between 90W and Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 10N27W 09N34W and 07N38W. The ITCZ continues from
07N38W to 04N44W to 04N49W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers from 04N to 06N between 46W and 48W. isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers within 120 nm on either
side of 06N12W 08N15W 08N24W 04N39W 05N45W, and from 08N to 11N
between 56W and 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
The surface pressure pattern is comparatively flat. isolated
moderate rainshowers are to the north and east of the line 27N95W
27N86W 23N83W, roughly within 180 nm of the U.S.A. coast from 95W
eastward.

A weak surface ridge in the central Gulf of Mexico will change
little through Monday. A surface trough will emerge off the
Yucatan Peninsula each night, enhancing nocturnal winds in the
SW Gulf of Mexico through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean, with an Hispaniola cyclonic circulation center,
from 12N to 26N between 60W and 80W. isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 17N to 22N between Puerto Rico and the Windward Passage.

The 82W/83W tropical wave will move into Central America on
Friday. The 59W/60W tropical wave will reach the Windward Islands
by early Friday. The vigorous 35W/37W eastern Atlantic Ocean
tropical wave will move across the tropical North Atlantic Ocean
on Friday and on Saturday, and it will reach the eastern
Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Neither tropical wave appears to have any
potential for tropical cyclone formation. Strong breeze to near
gale-force winds in the central Caribbean Sea will diminish on
Sunday and Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

One upper level trough is along 33N52W to 26N56W. isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the area from 23N northward between
30W and 55W. A warm front is along 33N/34N between 50W and 70W.
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 55W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward. A surface ridge is along 33N34W
30N25W 32N16W. A second surface ridge is along 31N54W 25N69W,
beyond the NW Bahamas.

Broad surface high pressure across the west-central Atlantic Ocean
will weaken gradually on Sunday and on Monday. Benign marine
conditions are expected across the region through early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net