[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is partially in Africa along 15W/16W from 19N
southward. This wave is noted in model diagnostics. Scattered
showers are from 07N- 10N between 14W-21W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W from 19N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection is related to
this wave at this time.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W from 20N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are mainly south of
12N affecting the northern portion of South America between 57W-
65W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 20N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
affecting Central America and adjacent waters south of 13N between
79W-85W.

A tropical wave is moving through southwest Mexico and the EPAC
with axis along 97N. Scattered showers are noted with this wave
between 97W-100W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N16W to 09N36W. The ITCZ continues from 09N36W to 07N38W,
then resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N41W to 04N50W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical wave along 16W,
scattered showers are noted along the boundaries between 23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
The surface pressure pattern is comparatively flat. Scattered
showers are to the north and east of the line 27N95W 27N86W
23N83W, roughly within 180 nm of the U.S.A. coast from 95W
eastward.

A weak surface ridge in the central Gulf of Mexico will change
little through Monday. A surface trough will emerge off the
Yucatan Peninsula each night, enhancing nocturnal winds in the
SW Gulf of Mexico through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean, with an Hispaniola cyclonic circulation center,
from 12N to 26N between 60W and 80W. Scattered showers are from
17N to 22N between Puerto Rico and the Windward Passage.

The 83W tropical wave will move into Central America on Friday.
The 60W tropical wave will reach the Windward Islands by early
Friday. The vigorous 39W eastern Atlantic tropical wave will move
across the tropical North Atlantic Ocean on Friday and on
Saturday, and it will reach the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.
Neither tropical wave appears to have any potential for tropical
cyclone formation. Strong breeze to near gale-force winds in the
central Caribbean Sea will diminish on Sunday and Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

One upper level trough is along 33N52W to 26N56W. Scattered
showers cover the area from 23N northward between 30W and 55W. A
warm front is along 34N between 55W and 70W. Isolated showers
cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 55W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward. A surface ridge is along 33N34W
30N25W 32N16W. A second surface ridge is along 31N54W 25N69W,
beyond the NW Bahamas.

Broad surface high pressure across the west-central Atlantic Ocean
will weaken gradually on Sunday and on Monday. Benign marine
conditions are expected across the region through early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT/ERA
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