[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281236
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
836 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in Africa, still, along 13W/14W from 17N
southward. Clouds and precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds from 03N to 18N between 10W and 20W.
isolated moderate rainshowers from 05N to 09N between 11W and 17W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/36W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation
appears to be more related to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/58W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation
appears to be more related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, from 10N to 12N between 80W and 84W in SE
Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 10N southward between the coast of Colombia and 80W near
Panama.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 23N
southward between 90W and Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 08N20W 06N33W and 05N42W. The ITCZ continues from
05N42W to 05N53W, at the coast of French Guiana. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong rainshowers from 04N to 06N between
46W and 48W. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
within 120 nm on either side of 06N12W 08N15W 08N24W 04N39W
05N45W, and from 08N to 11N between 56W and 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
The surface pressure pattern is comparatively flat. A 1019 mb
high pressure center is about 100 nm to the west of the coast of
SW Florida near 26N83W.

A weak surface ridge along 26N will change little through Monday.
A surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each
night, enhancing nocturnal winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico through
Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean, with an Hispaniola cyclonic circulation center,
from 12N to 26N between 60W and 80W. isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 17N to 20N between Puerto Rico and the Windward Passage.

The 81W/82W tropical wave will move into Central America on Friday.
The 56W/58W tropical wave will reach the Windward Islands by early
Friday. The 32W/36W eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave will
move across the tropical North Atlantic on Saturday, and it will
reach the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. The winds and seas in
the central Caribbean Sea will diminish gradually through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

One upper level trough is along 33N52W to 26N56W. A surface trough
is along 42W/44W from 28N to 34N. isolated moderate rainshowers
cover the area from 23N northward between 30W and 53W. A
stationary front is along 33N50W 33N58W, to Bermuda, and
northwestward beyond 33N70W. isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 53W
westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward. A 1022 mb high pressure center
is near 30N29W, about 600 nm to the WNW of the Canary Islands.

Broad surface high pressure across the west-central Atlantic Ocean
will weaken gradually through Saturday. Benign marine conditions
are expected across the region through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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