[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in Africa, still, along 13W/14W from 17N
southward. Clouds and precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds from 03N to 18N between 10W and 20W.
isolated moderate rainshowers from 05N to 09N between 11W and 17W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/36W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation
appears to be more related to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/58W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation
appears to be more related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, from 10N to 12N between 80W and 84W in SE
Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 10N southward between the coast of Colombia and 80W near
Panama.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 23N
southward between 90W and Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 08N20W 06N33W and 05N42W. The ITCZ continues from
05N42W to 05N53W, at the coast of French Guiana.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave
progressing west through the Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge
prevails across the northern portion of the Gulf, anchored by a
1018 mb high centered near 25N83W. With this, a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow dominates the Gulf waters. A surface trough
will develop during the late afternoons and early evenings over
the Yucatan Peninsula, then shift westward across the southwest
Gulf waters during the overnight hours and dissipate by late each
morning. The trough will be accompanied by a fresh to locally
moderate wind shift each night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave
progressing west through the west Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted across the west Caribbean, mainly east of the
tropical wave from 11N to 18N between 68W and 82W. These winds
will diminish from the north, but continue across the southwest
Caribbean this week. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong
through tonight in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface ridge dominates across the tropical North
Atlantic from 27N near the Bahamas to near 30N in the far eastern
Atlantic. Weak surface troughs are located near 32N47W and 31N33W
with minimal convection and no significant winds. Three tropical
waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Refer to the
section above for more information. Moderate to fresh trades are
noted across the tropics with little change forecast this week.
Moderate winds are forecast for the next few days during the late
afternoons into the early evening hours along the north coast of
Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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