[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along western Africa and eastern
Atlantic from 17N11W to 00N11W. Model diagnostics depicted this
wave, along with latest surface observations. Scattered moderate
convection is noted ahead of the wave's axis between 11W-25W.

A tropical wave has an axis from 01N-19N and along 33W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 03N-07N between 30W-36W.
While no surface observations were in the vicinity of the wave,
satellite imagery suggests that either a distinct surface trough
or broad low was present. A distinct maximum in total
precipitable water (TPW) is also observed along and east of the
wave's axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind
shift along the wave axis as it progresses westward across the
tropical Atlantic at around 10-15 kt.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 55W from 03N-19N, and is
estimated to be progressing west at 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is related to this wave at this time. The wave also has
negligible surface signature, though it is well-present in the
700 mb model diagnostics and TPW imagery.

A tropical wave is analyzed across the west Caribbean reaching
the East Pacific, with axis along 81W from 04N-19N, and is moving
west about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection accompany this
wave mainly south of 12N between 75W-85W. The wave has negligible
surface signature and cannot be easily identified in TPW, though
it is present in the 700 mb model diagnostics.

A tropical wave is progressing west through the Bay of Campeche and
is currently analyzed with axis along 93W and extends south from
20N into the East Pacific near 08N. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring within 100 nm on either side of the wave's axis. The
wave does have some surface circulation as well as being apparent
in the TPW imagery. This wave has the potential to develop into
an east Pacific tropical cyclone later this week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western
Africa at 14N17W to 07N32W. The ITCZ forms west of a tropical wave
near 05N37W and continues to 05N52W. Aside from the convection
described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate
convection is observed within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ
between 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave
progressing west through the Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge
prevails across the northern portion of the Gulf, anchored by a
1018 mb high centered near 25N83W. With this, a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow dominates the Gulf waters. A surface trough
will develop during the late afternoons and early evenings over
the Yucatan Peninsula, then shift westward across the southwest
Gulf waters during the overnight hours and dissipate by late each
morning. The trough will be accompanied by a fresh to locally
moderate wind shift each night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave
progressing west through the west Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted across the west Caribbean, mainly east of the
tropical wave from 11N to 18N between 68W and 82W. These winds
will diminish from the north, but continue across the southwest
Caribbean this week. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong
through tonight in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface ridge dominates across the tropical North
Atlantic from 27N near the Bahamas to near 30N in the far eastern
Atlantic. Weak surface troughs are located near 32N47W and 31N33W
with minimal convection and no significant winds. Three tropical
waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Refer to the
section above for more information. Moderate to fresh trades are
noted across the tropics with little change forecast this week.
Moderate winds are forecast for the next few days during the late
afternoons into the early evening hours along the north coast of
Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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