[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis. Its axis
extends along 10W from 00N-17N. Model diagnostics depicted this
wave, along with surface observations earlier today. Scattered
moderate convection is noted ahead of the wave's axis between
15W-22W.

A tropical wave has an axis from 01N to 21N along 30W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 04N-07N between 30W-37W.
While no surface observations were in the vicinity of the wave,
visible satellite imagery suggests that either a distinct surface
trough or broad low is present. A distinct maximum in total
precipitable water (TPW) is also observed along and east of the
wave's axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind
shift along the wave axis as it progresses westward across the
tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 53W from 02N to 19N, and
is estimated to be progressing west at 15-20 kt. No significant
convection is related to this wave at this time. The wave also has
negligible surface signature, though it is well-present in the
700 mb model diagnostics and TPW.

A tropical wave is analyzed across the central-west Caribbean
reaching the East Pacific, with axis along 79W from 03N to 19N,
and is moving west about 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
exists south of 13N within 300 nm west of the wave's axis. The
wave has negligible surface signature and cannot be easily
identified in TPW, though it is present in the 700 mb model
diagnostics

A tropical wave is progressing west through The Yucatan Peninsula and
is currently analyzed with axis along 92W and extends south from
22N into the East Pacific near 09N. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring within 100 nm on either side of the wave's axis.
The wave does have some surface circulation as well as being
apparent in the TPW imagery. This tropical wave has the potential
to develop into an east Pacific tropical cyclone later this week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western
Africa at 13N17W to 06N37W. The ITCZ forms at 06N37W and
continues to 06N50W. Aside from the convection described in the
Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is
observed within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the northern portion of the Gulf,
anchored by a 1019 mb high centered over the Florida peninsula.
With this, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominates the
Gulf waters. A surface trough will develop during the late
afternoons and early evenings over the Yucatan Peninsula, then
shift westward across the southwest gulf waters during the
overnight hours and dissipate by late each morning. The trough
will be accompanied by a fresh to locally moderate wind shift
each night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See tropical wave section above for details on two waves
progressing west through the Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong
winds are noted across the west Caribbean, generally from 11N to
18N between 68W and 82W. Winds up to 30 kt were observed by the
scatterometer today. These winds will diminish from the north,
but continue across the southwest Caribbean this week. Nocturnal
winds will pulse to fresh to strong through tonight in the Gulf of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad ridge of high pressure dominates across the tropical North
Atlantic from 27N near the Bahamas to near 30N in the far eastern
Atlantic. Moderate scattered convection is located near 28N-32N
from 55W-75W just south of a stationary front. Weak surface
troughs are centered near 30N34W and 30N42W though these have
minimal convection and no significant winds. Two tropical waves
are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Refer to the section
above for more information. Moderate to fresh trades are noted
across the tropics with little change forecast this week. Moderate
winds are forecast for the next few days during the late
afternoons into the early evening hours along the north coast of
Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Landsea/ERA
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