[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from
12N27W to 03N28W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a favorable
wind shear environment, and the CIRA LPW show moderate moisture
associated with it. The GOES-16 Geocolor RGB imagery shows the
presence of the Saharan Air Layer dust and dry air N of the wave
at 15N. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave
axis S of 9N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N43W to 03N43W, moving W at 10-15 kt. GOES SAL and Dust
RGBs show the wave has dry air and dust N of 12N. Upper level
diffluent flow and shallow moisture in the vicinity of the ITCZ
supports widely scattered moderate convection from 04N to 11N
between 35W and 42W.

A tropical wave is E of the Windward Islands with axis extending
from 13N57W to 03N59W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The Saharan Air Layer
dust and dry air is N of 11N. This factor along with strong wind
sheer in the region is hindering the development of deep
convection.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending S
from the southern coast of Cuba near 20N78W to Jamaica to near
eastern Panama near 11N79W, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the SW Gulf of Mexico with axis extending
from 21N96W to SE Mexico, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W
to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 06N26W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 06N29W continuing to 06N42W, then
resumes again W of another tropical wave near 06N45W and
continues to the coast of South America near 06N56W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the axis E of
26W to the coast of Africa. Scattered moderate convection is also
from 07N-11N between 37W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 27N84W.
5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are going around the high. Scattered
moderate convection is is over the E Gulf E of 89W to include
Florida and the Straits of Florida.

In the upper levels, a low is centered over the SW Gulf near
26N92W. Upper level diffluence is E of the center over the E Gulf
enhancing convection.

A broad area of thunderstorm activity continues over the Yucatan
Peninsula. This activity is expected to persist through Friday,
and then will move slowly northwestward during the weekend.
Development of this disturbance, if any, should be slow to occur
due to strong upper-level winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tropical wave in the central Caribbean will continue westward
across the remainder of the basin through the early part of the
weekend, while another tropical wave currently in the Tropical N
Atlantic will move into the eastern Caribbean on Fri and Sat.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are S of 11N in the SW
Caribbean, and in the NW Caribbean W of 85W. Otherwise, mostly
fair weather is over the E Caribbean.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the western
Caribbean along 81W. A large upper level ridge is over the
remainder of the Caribbean with axis along 72W.

Strong trades currently across the central Caribbean will shift
slightly SW across the waters between 70W and 85W through the end
of the week, then begin to diminish into the early part of the
weekend as the pressure gradient weakens slightly.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent southwesterly upper level flow is over the SW N
Atlantic. A weak surface trough may be present from 28N75W to
25N77W with scattered showers and thunderstorms within 120 nm SE
of the trough axis.

Farther E, an upper level trough in the central Atlantic supports
a stationary front from 32N52W to 28N56W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front.

Otherwise, a 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
35N31W producing surface ridging over the E Atlantic E of 50W and
N of 20N. This ridge is forecast to shift E Fri and Sat while the
front gradually weakens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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