[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150511
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
111 AM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from
13N27W to 03N29W, moving W at 10 kt. The CIRA LPW shows moderate
moisture associated with the wave. The GOES-16 Geocolor RGB
imagery shows the presence of the Saharan Air Layer dust and dry
air N of the wave at 15N. Isolated moderate convection is within
120 nm of the wave axis S of 9N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 13N44W to 03N44W, moving W at 10-15 kt. GOES SAL and Dust
RGBs show the wave has dry air and dust N of 13N. Upper level
diffluent flow and shallow moisture in the vicinity of the ITCZ
supports widely scattered moderate convection from 04N to 11N
between 35W and 43W.

A tropical wave is just E of the Windward Islands with axis
extending from 14N59W to 03N60W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The Saharan
Air Layer dust and dry air is N of 10N. The wave is mostly void of
precipitation.

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis extending from
19N80W to 11N80W, moving west at 10 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W
to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 07N27W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 07N30W continuing to 07N43W, then
resumes again west of another tropical wave near 07N46W and
continues to the coast of South America near 06N56W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the axis E of
26W to the coast of Africa. Scattered moderate convection is also
from 06N-11N between 36W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along
29N. 05-20 kt SE winds are over the Gulf with strongest winds
along the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the weakest winds
over the NE Gulf. Scattered showers remain over the E Gulf E of
89W to include Florida and the Straits of Florida.

In the upper levels, a low is centered over the SW Gulf near
26N92W. Upper level diffluence is E of the center over the E Gulf
enhancing convection.

A broad area of showers and thunderstorm continues over the
Yucatan Peninsula. This activity is expected to persist through
Friday, and then will move slowly northwestward during the
weekend. Development of this disturbance, if any, should be slow
to occur due to strong upper-level winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean. See above. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over Central
America from the Yucatan Peninsula to Panama. Similar convection
is over N Colombia. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean
with strongest winds over the central Caribbean between 70W-85W.
Mostly fair weather is over the E Caribbean.

In the upper levels, diffluent flow is over the NW Caribbean
enhancing convection. A large upper level ridge is over the
remainder of the Caribbean with axis along 72W.

The tropical wave in the central Caribbean will continue westward
across the remainder of the basin through the early part of the
weekend, while another tropical wave currently in the Tropical N
Atlantic will move into the eastern Caribbean on Fri and Sat.
Strong trades across the central Caribbean between
70W-85W will diminish this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent southwesterly upper level flow is over the W Atlantic.
Scattered moderate convection is off the N Florida coast from
28N-30N between 78W-81W. Scattered showers remain over the
Bahamas. A 1021 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 26N65W. The
tail end of a stationary front is over the central Atlantic from
32N52W to 27N57W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of the
front. A 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N32W
producing surface ridging over the E Atlantic N of 20N and E of
50W.

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge along 26N will drift southward
through Sun as a weak cold front sweeps eastward across the waters
north of 25N. Moderate easterly winds are expected south of the
ridge. Gentle to moderate southerly flow north of the ridge will
moderate to fresh southwestly flow ahead of the front this
weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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