[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 11N26W
to 03N27W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a favorable wind
shear environment, and the CIRA LPW show moderate moisture
associated with it. The GOES-16 Geocolor RGB imagery shows the
presence of the Saharan Air Layer dust and dry air N of the wave
at 15N. Convection directly associated with the wave has
diminished.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
12N42W to 03N43W, moving W at 10-15 kt. GOES SAL and Dust RGBs
show the wave has dry air and dust N of 12N. Upper level diffluent
flow and shallow moisture in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports
widely scattered moderate convection from 04N to 11N between 35W
and 42W.

A tropical wave is E of the Windward Islands with axis extending
from 13N57W to 03N59W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The Saharan Air Layer
dust and dry air is N of 11N. This factor along with strong wind
sheer in the region is hindering the development of deep
convection.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending S
from the southern coast of Cuba near 20N77W to across central
Jamaica to near eastern Panama near 09N79W, moving west at 15 kt.
Satellite imagery shows SAL dry air moving across the central and
E Caribbean, which along with strong wind sheer is hindering the
development of deep convection at the time.

A tropical wave is over the SW Gulf of Mexico W of the Yucatan
Peninsula with axis extending from 24N93W to across SE Mexico,
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
S of 23N W of 90W to the coast of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 06N25W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 06N28W continuing to 06N41W, then
resumes again W of another tropical wave near 06N44W and
continues to the coast of South America near 05N53W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm either
side of the axis E of 26W to the coast of Africa.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends W to the NW Gulf of Mexico
along 28N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extend
from the Yucatan Channel northward to across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.

In the upper levels, a low is centered near 25N91W with a trough
axis extending NW to the Texas coast and SE to the Yucatan
peninsula.

The tropical wave in the SW Gulf will gradually weaken into a
broad and elongated area of low pressure through Fri into early
Sat, with the pressure gradient supporting fresh to strong
SE flow across the western Gulf of Mexico Sat into Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tropical wave in the central Caribbean will continue westward
across the remainder of the basin through the early part of the
weekend, while another tropical wave currently in the Tropical N
Atlantic will move into the eastern Caribbean on Fri and Sat.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are S of 11N in the SW
Caribbean, and in the NW Caribbean W of 85W. Otherwise, mostly
fair weather is over the E Caribbean.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the western
Caribbean along 81W. A large upper level ridge is over the
remainder of the Caribbean with axis along 72W.

Strong trades currently across the central Caribbean will shift
slightly SW across the waters between 70W and 85W through the end
of the week, then begin to diminish into the early part of the
weekend as the pressure gradient weakens slightly.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent southwesterly upper level flow is over the SW N
Atlantic. A weak surface trough may be present from 28N75W to
25N77W with scattered showers and thunderstorms within 120 nm SE
of the trough axis.

Farther E, an upper level trough in the central Atlantic supports
a stalling cold front from 32N52W to 26N58W. A pre-frontal trough
is dissipating as is associated convection.

Otherwise, a 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
35N31W producing surface ridging over the E Atlantic E of 50W and
N of 20N. This ridge is forecast to shift E Fri and Sat while the
front gradually weakens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Lewitsky
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