[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Currently, three tropical waves are observed between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is along 25W from 02N-12N. This wave shows up
as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Currently,
showers are limited near the wave's axis. African dust surrounds
the wave limiting convection.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 14N42W to 05N45W. This wave
was repositioned after analyzing current observations and model
diagnostics. This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture surge
on the TPW product. Scattered showers are near the southern end of
the wave's axis south of 10N between 43W-48W. Saharan dust
surrounds the northern half of the wave limiting convection.

Another tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 05N-16N. The wave
coincides with a surge of moistened air, as noted in TPW imagery.
This wave was repositioned after analyzing this data, current
observations, and model diagnostics. Scattered showers are noted
south of 08N between 55W-58W.

A tropical wave is moving across Hispaniola. This wave was
repositioned after analyzing current observations/satellite
imagery, and model diagnostics. Its axis is along 70W south of
19N. Scattered showers are noted along the axis.

A tropical wave is moving across the Bay of Campeche, with axis
along 92W. This wave is forecast to weaken as it enters the EPAC
region.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
14N17W, to 07N23W. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave near
05N27W to 06N42W then from 06N47W to 06N54W. No significant
convection is observed with these features at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper-level trough extending across the eastern Gulf and
the NW Caribbean into northern Central America continues to
enhance the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the eastern Gulf, and over parts of Florida. Convection is
now more concentrated over the southeast Gulf waters and the
Yucatan Channel. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence
of the Atlantic ridge that extends westward across Florida into
the Gulf.

The mid to upper trough will meander over the Gulf of Mexico
through the week and continue to enhance convection mainly across
the eastern gulf waters. A surface trough will develop along the
Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon, drift westward across the
southwest Gulf during the overnight hours accompanied by a fresh
east to southeast wind shift with the trough dissipating along 96W
during the late mornings. Guidance is suggesting a fresh to
strong wind shift will accompany the trough beginning on Wed
evening as the pressure gradient tightens during the middle of the
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level trough extends across the west Caribbean with
axis along 86W. A diffluent flow to the east of this trough is
enhancing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms between
73W-84W. A surface trough was analyzed within this convection,
extending from 19N79W to 12N82W. A tight pressure gradient will
support strong trades across the south-central and southwest
Caribbean through the week, with these conditions spreading north
across the central Caribbean by the Wednesday, and across the the
west Caribbean by late this week. The mid to upper-level trough
will prevail across the west Caribbean through the week enhancing
convection across this area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture continues to prevail across the west Atlantic
and the Bahamas, on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-west
Caribbean mid to upper-level trough. Lightning data and Doppler
Radar indicate the presence of scattered thunderstorms across the
coastal waters of east Florida, the Straits of Florida, and the
Bahamas. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean
with a 1027 mb high pressure located near 30N41W. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are noted along the southern periphery of the
ridge per scatterometer data.

The surface ridge will meander between 27N and 29N through Fri
night. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are forecast along
the northern coast of Hispaniola during the late afternoons and
evenings, with moderate easterly low forecast elsewhere south of
the ridge. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected north of
the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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