[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Currently, three tropical waves are observed between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is along 22W from 02N-12N. This wave shows up
well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product.
Currently, convection is limited near the wave's axis. African
dust surrounds the wave limiting convection.

A tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 02N-13N moving westward 15
to 20 kt. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture
surge on the TPW product. Scattered showers are near the southern
end of the wave's axis. Saharan dust surrounds the wave limiting
convection.

Another tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 03N-13N. The wave
coincides with a surge of moistened air. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N-08N between 42W-47W.

A tropical wave is moving across Hispaniola. Its axis is along
71W south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are noted over Hispaniola in association with this
system, forecast to move west through the central Caribbean today
reaching the west Caribbean waters on Tue and Wed.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and
Guatemala, with axis along 91W. This wave is forecast to weaken as
it enters the EPAC region.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 07N18W and 05N30W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N33W to 05N55W, near the border of French
Guiana and Suriname. Scattered showers are from 11N southward and
from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper level trough extending across the eastern Gulf and
the NW Caribbean into northern Central America continues to
enhance the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the eastern Gulf, and over parts of Florida. Convection is
now more concentrated over the Se Gulf and the Yucatan Channel.
The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of the Atlantic
ridge that extends westward across Florida into the Gulf.

The mid to upper trough will meander over the Gulf of Mexico
through Fri and continue to enhance convection mainly across the
eastern the far east and southeast gulf waters. A surface trough
will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon,
drift westward across the southwest Gulf during the overnight
hours accompanied by a fresh east to southeast wind shift with the
trough dissipating along 96W during the late mornings. Guidance
is suggesting a fresh to strong wind shift will accompany the
trough beginning on Wed evening as the pressure gradient tightens
during the middle of the week.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient will support strong trades across
the south-central and southwest Caribbean through Mon, with these
conditions spreading north across the central Caribbean by the
middle of the week, and across the the west Caribbean late in the
week. Locally strong trades will develop across the tropical
waters east of the Windwards on Mon night, with these strong
conditions spreading west across the southeast Caribbean waters on
Tue night and Wed.

Strong SW flow ahead of a mid to upper-level trough over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean continues to transport
abundant mid to upper level moisture across the NW Caribbean and
Cuba into the Bahamas. Convection has flared up across the SW
Caribbean with a band of showers and tstms extending within about
120 nm Ne of a line from 09N76W to 13N83W.  Shallow moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow is noted elsewhere across the
basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture continues to prevail across the west Atlantic
and the Bahamas, on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-NW
Caribbean mid to upper-level trough. Lightning data and Doppler
Radar indicate the presence of isolated to scattered tstms across
the coastal waters of E Florida, the Straits of Florida, and the
NW Bahamas. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean
with a 1027 mb high pressure located near 34N28W. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are noted along the southern periphery of the
ridge per scatterometer data.

An east to west ridge will meander between 27N and 29N through
Fri night. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are forecast
along the northern coast of Hispaniola during the late afternoons
and evenings, with moderate easterly low forecast elsewhere south
of the ridge. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected north
of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

GR/ERA
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