[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Currently, three tropical waves are observed between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is along 28W from 02N-12N moving west at 15-20
kt. This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture surge on the
TPW product. Currently, showers are limited near the wave's
axis. African dust surrounds the wave limiting convection.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 15N45W to 05N48W, moving
west at 15-20 kt. This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture
surge on the TPW product. Scattered showers are south of 12N
within 120 nm E of the wave axis. Saharan dust surrounds the
northern half of the wave, limiting convection.

Another tropical wave axis is from 16N55W to 06N57W, moving west
at 15 kt. The wave coincides with a surge of moistened air, as
noted in TPW imagery. Isolated showers are noted between 56W-58W.

A tropical wave moving south of Hispaniola at 10-15 kt extends
its axis from 19N71W to 11N73W. Scattered showers are noted
along and west of the axis.

A tropical wave south of 20N along 94W is moving west at 10-15
kt. The wave is forecast to weaken as it enters the EPAC region.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues west of the tropical wave along
28W from 05N30W to 07N46W, then west of the next tropical wave
from 07N49W from 08N56W. No significant convection is observed
with along the convergence zone boundary at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper-level trough extending across the eastern Gulf and
the NW Caribbean into northern Central America continues to
enhance the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the eastern Gulf, and over parts of Florida. Convection is
now more concentrated over the southeast Gulf waters and the
Yucatan Channel. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence
of the Atlantic ridge that extends westward across Florida into
the Gulf.

The mid to upper trough will meander over the Gulf of Mexico
through the week and continue to enhance convection mainly across
the eastern gulf waters. A surface trough will develop along the
Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon, drift westward across the
southwest Gulf during the overnight hours accompanied by a fresh
east to southeast wind shift with the trough dissipating along
96W during the late mornings. Guidance is suggesting a fresh to
strong wind shift will accompany the trough beginning on Wed
evening as the pressure gradient tightens during the middle of
the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level trough extends across the west Caribbean
with axis along 86W. A diffluent flow to the east of this trough
is enhancing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
between 73W-84W. A surface trough was analyzed within this
convection, extending from 19N79W to 12N82W. A tight pressure
gradient will support strong trades across the south-central and
southwest Caribbean through the week, with these conditions
spreading north across the central Caribbean by the Wednesday,
and across the the west Caribbean by late this week. The mid to
upper-level trough will prevail across the west Caribbean
through the week enhancing convection across this area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture continues to prevail across the west Atlantic
and the Bahamas, on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-west
Caribbean mid to upper-level trough. Lightning data and Doppler
Radar indicate the presence of scattered thunderstorms across
the coastal waters of east Florida, the Straits of Florida, and
the  Bahamas. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean with a 1027 mb high pressure located near 30N41W. Moderate
to locally fresh winds are noted along the southern periphery of
the ridge per scatterometer data.

The surface ridge will meander between 27N and 29N through Fri
night. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are forecast along
the northern coast of Hispaniola during the late afternoons and
evenings, with moderate easterly low forecast elsewhere south of
the ridge. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected north
of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell
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