[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030428
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The forecast that is valid
until 03/1200 UTC has a northerly near-gale or gale in zone
AGADIR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 14N22W to 02N23W, moving westward at 15 kt. TPW imagery
depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment and model
diagnostics show a trough at 700 mb. Scattered showers are noted
within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 13N46W to 00N47W, moving westward at 25-30 kt. The wave is
depicted as a broad trough of moisture on TPW imagery. The wave is
void of convection at this time.

A low amplitude tropical wave extends over the southeast Caribbean with
axis from 15N70W to 03N70W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave
shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis
mainly over Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 13N16W
to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends W of a tropical wave from 06N24W to
04N35W to 05N46W. The ITCZ resumes west of another tropical wave
from 05N48W to the coast of South America near 03N51W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico waters
near 26N87W. 05-15 kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the
Gulf with weakest winds near the center of the high. Scattered
moderate convection is over the Florida Panhandle and over N
Florida N of 29N. Similar convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula
N of 18N. Scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida and W
Cuba.

In the upper levels, a large upper level low is centered over the
Yucatan Peninsula near 20N90W. Upper level diffluence is noted
over Cuba and the Bahamas due to this low.

Surface troughing will form over the western Yucatan each evening
and drift over the southwest Gulf overnight through Wed. A weak
cold front will enter the northern Gulf Mon morning and move
across the northern Florida Peninsula and the NE Gulf through Tue
morning. The front will then stall across central Florida before
dissipating late Wed. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge will extend
from the SE Gulf to Texas the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the Caribbean, with
strongest winds along the coast of northern Colombia. Scattered
showers remain over over E Cuba E of 80W. Scattered showers are
also over Central America from Belize to Costa Rica. To the
south, the monsoon trough along 09N is enhancing scattered
moderate convection south of 12N between 77W-85W.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trades in the S central Caribbean over the next several
days, with mainly moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except
gentle to moderate over the NW Caribbean. As pressures lower W of
Central America starting the middle of next week, strong winds
will expand from the central Caribbean to the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N70W. A
surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N62W to 26N60W.
Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the trough. A cold
front is over the central Atlantic from 32N39W to a 1016 mb low
near 29N47W, to 26N48W to 26N53W. Scattered showers are within 60
nm of the front. A 1029 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic
near 37N23W. A surface ridge axis extends SW from this high to
20N50W.

Surface ridging will prevail from the central Atlantic to the
Gulf of Mexico this weekend. A cold front will move across the
Carolinas into the western Atlantic Mon morning, crossing S of 31N
Mon evening. The tail end of the front will stall across the
waters north of 28N Tue through Tue night before becoming diffuse
on Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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