[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 14N24W to 07N25W to 02N25W, moving westward at about 15 kt.
TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment
and model diagnostics show a trough at 700 mb. Scattered showers
are noted within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
along 48W/49W from 14N to 01N, moving westward at 25-30 kt. The
wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave is along
the axis within the ITCZ as described above.

A low amplitude tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with
axis along 73W S of 17N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. The
wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery.
No deep convection is associated with this wave. Only isolated
showers and thunderstorms are occurring along its southern
portion over northern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
13N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends W of the tropical wave that
is along the position from 14N24W to 07N25W to 02N25W to 04N35W
to 05N47W. It resumes just to the west of the tropical wave that
is along 48W/49W from 14N to 01N to inland the coast of S
America at 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 50W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 47W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico waters
near 26N87W. Light to gentle anticyclonic surface winds are over
the Gulf with weakest winds near the center of the high. In the
upper levels, a large upper-level low is centered over the Yucatan
Peninsula near 20N90W. Upper level diffluence is noted over Cuba
and the Bahamas due to this low.

Surface troughing will form over the western Yucatan each evening
and drift over the southwest Gulf overnight through Wed. A weak
cold front will enter the northern Gulf Mon morning and move
across the northern Florida Peninsula and the NE Gulf through Tue
morning. The front will then stall across central Florida before
dissipating late Wed. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge will extend
from the SE Gulf to Texas the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the Caribbean, with
strongest winds along the coast of northern Colombia. Scattered
showers remain over over E Cuba E of 80W. Scattered showers are
also over Central America from Belize to Costa Rica. To the
south, the monsoon trough along 09N is enhancing scattered
moderate convection south of 12N between 77W-85W.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trades in the S central Caribbean over the next several
days, with mainly moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except
gentle to moderate over the NW Caribbean. As pressures lower W of
Central America starting the middle of next week, strong winds
will expand from the central Caribbean to the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N60W to 27N60W.
Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the trough. A cold
front is over the central Atlantic from 25N50W to a 1016 mb low
near 29N45W to 31N42W. No convection is related to these features
at this time. A 1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
36N22W. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin.

Surface ridging will prevail from the central Atlantic to the
Gulf of Mexico this weekend. A cold front will move across the
Carolinas into the western Atlantic Mon morning, crossing S of 31N
Mon evening. The tail end of the front will stall across the
waters north of 28N Tue through Tue night before becoming diffuse
on Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/MF

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net