[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The forecast that is valid
until 03/1200 UTC has a northerly near-gale or gale in zone
AGADIR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 14N21W to 03N21W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery
depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment and model
diagnostics show a trough at 700 mb. Scattered showers are noted
within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 13N40W to 00N41W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is
depicted as a broad trough of moisture on TPW imagery. The wave is
void of convection at this time.

A low amplitude tropical wave extends over the southeast Caribbean with
axis from 14N68W to 03N68W, moving westward at 10 kt. The wave
shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis mainly
over Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 14N16W
to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 05N39W. The ITCZ
then resumes west of a tropical wave from 05N43W to the coast of
South America near 03N51W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of
the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico waters
near 27N87W. 10 kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf.
Scattered moderate convection is over the Florida Panhandle and
over N Florida N of 29N. Similar convection is over the Yucatan
Peninsula N of 18N. Scattered showers are over the Straits of
Florida and W Cuba.

In the upper levels, a large upper level low is centered over the
Yucatan Peninsula near 20N90W. Upper level diffluence is noted
over Cuba and the Bahamas due to this low.

Surface troughing will form over the western Yucatan each evening
and drift over the southwest Gulf overnight through Wed. A weak
cold front will enter the northern Gulf Mon morning and move
across the northern Florida Peninsula and the NE Gulf through Tue
morning. The front will then stall across central Florida before
dissipating late Wed. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge will extend
from the SE Gulf to Texas the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the Caribbean, with
strongest winds along the coast of northern Colombia. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba E of 80W. Scattered
showers are over Central America from Belize to Costa Rica. To
the south, the monsoon trough along 10N is enhancing scattered
moderate convection south of 12N between 77W-85W.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean over the next
several days, with mainly moderate to fresh trades elsewhere,
except gentle to moderate over the NW Caribbean. As pressures
lower W of Central America starting the middle of next week,
strong winds will expand from the central Caribbean to the Gulf
of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to 26N60W.
Scattered showers are noted along the trough. A cold front is over
the central Atlantic from 32N40W to 28N49W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front. A 1028 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 37N23W. A surface ridge axis extends SW from this
high to 23N46W.

Surface ridging will prevail from the central Atlantic to the
Gulf of Mexico this weekend. A cold front will move across the
Carolinas into the western Atlantic Mon morning, crossing S of 31N
Mon evening. The tail end of the front will stall across the
waters north of 28N Tue through Tue night before becoming diffuse
on Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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