[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 AM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 26W/27W from
12N southward, moving W 15 knots. The wave is depicted as a broad
trough of moisture on SSMI TPW imagery. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers, that are in the ITCZ
precipitation, are from 03N to 07N between 20W and 30W.

A SE Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 13N
southward, moving W 15 knots. The wave shows up well on SSMI
total precipitable water imagery. Upper level SW wind flow is
moving through the area of the tropical wave. rainshowers are
possible from 13N southward to land between 60W and 63W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to
06N26W, from 05N28W to 03N40W, to the Equator along 48W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 03N to 08N between 03W and 25W, and from 06N
to 08N between 51W and 56W. isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes across the Florida Panhandle,
through the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of Honduras.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico and across
Florida, south of 29N and east of 90W.

A surface trough is expected to form in the western part of the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening, and then drift across the SW Gulf
of Mexico during the early morning hours. A frontal trough will
move across the NE Gulf of Mexico late this weekend with fresh SW
winds. A surface ridge in the northern Gulf of Mexico will
drift S, into the central Gulf of Mexico during this weekend,
supporting gentle to moderate winds through the remainder of the
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through the Gulf of Honduras into Guatemala. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are north
of Honduras and west of 80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in the coastal waters of Costa Rica and Panama.

High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean Sea for the next
several days, and in the Gulf of Honduras through late tonight.
Expect moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere during the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N48W to 29N52W to a 1014 mb low
pressure center near 28N58W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate rain showers, are within 90 nm
south and southeast of the frontal boundary.

A surface ridge spans much of the east-central Atlantic north of
20N. A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 29N71W. The high
will weaken this weekend, and the surface ridge will drift
southward. A surface trough will move off the Carolinas into the
western Atlantic Ocean this weekend.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 28N72W, to the west of a
frontal boundary that currently is moving through the central
Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure will dissipate into early next
week as it shifts southward as a ridge. This will be happening
ahead of a frontal boundary that is forecast to move across the
Carolinas into the western Atlantic Ocean early next week. The
front will stall across the waters north of 28N through Tuesday,
before becoming diffuse.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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