[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 25W S of 13N moving W at 15
kt. The wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on SSMI
TPW imagery. Minimal convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is along 60W S of 13N moving W at 15 kt. The
wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 06N24W, then west
of the tropical wave along 25W from 06N26W to 00N48W. Isolated
convection is along the ITCZ axis between 26W and 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes across the Florida Panhandle,
through the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of Honduras.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico and across
Florida, south of 29N and east of 90W.

A surface trough is expected to form in the western part of the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening, then drift across the SW Gulf of
Mexico at night. A frontal trough will move across the NE Gulf
of Mexico late this weekend with fresh SW winds. A surface ridge
in the northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain gentle to moderate
SE winds through the remainder of the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through the Gulf of Honduras into Guatemala. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are north
of Honduras and west of 80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in the coastal waters of Costa Rica and Panama.

High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean Sea and in the
Gulf of Honduras, with moderate to fresh trade winds expected
elsewhere during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N48W to 29N52W to a 1014 mb low
pressure center near 28N58W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate rain showers, are within 90 nm
south and southeast of the frontal boundary.

A surface ridge spans much of the east-central Atlantic north of
20N. A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 29N71W. The high
will weaken this weekend, and the surface ridge will drift
southward. A surface trough will move off the Carolinas into the
western Atlantic Ocean this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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