[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 02/1200 UTC,
consists of: the threat of a northerly near gale or gale in
AGADIR and TARFAYA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is depicted
as a broad trough of moisture on SSMI TPW imagery. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, that are in the
ITCZ precipitation, are from 02N to 08N between 20W and 30W.

A SE Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave shows up well
on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. The wave is moving
through the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 16N southward between 60W and 76W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 16N to 19N between 60W and 66W, and
elsewhere from 19N southward to land between 60W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to
06N25W, from 03N30W, crossing the Equator along 33W to 01S36W,
to the Equator again along 39W, to the Equator along 44W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 03N to 08N between 04W and 26W, and from
06N to 10N between 51W and 60W. isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southward beyond
Guatemala and El Salvador in Central America. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers in the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
eastward, and across Florida.

A surface trough is expected to form in the western part of the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening, and then drift across the SW Gulf
of Mexico during the early morning hours, through early next week.
A frontal trough will move across the NE Gulf of Mexico late this
weekend with fresh SW winds. A surface ridge in the northern Gulf
of Mexico will drift S, into the central Gulf of Mexico during
this weekend, supporting gentle to moderate winds through the
remainder of the period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southward beyond
Guatemala and El Salvador in Central America. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers are in the NW
corner of the area, from 15N northward from 80W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the eastern Pacific Ocean,
moving around a 04N81W cyclonic circulation center. The monsoon
trough is along 09N74W beyond 08N84W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong rainshowers cover coastal and inland areas of
Colombia and Panama from 04N to 10N between 74W and 79W. isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from
12N southward from 77W westward.

High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh
trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras through today, and in the S
central Caribbean Sea for the next several days. Expect moderate
to fresh trade winds elsewhere during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N43W to 28N50W, to a 1015 mb low
pressure center that is near 27N56W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, are from
24N northward between 35W and 70W. isolated moderate rainshowers
also are from 20N northward from 73W westward, with the eastern
Gulf of Mexico upper level trough.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that
is near 32N25W, to 28N30W 22N38W 19N50W and 19N56W. A 1018 mb
high pressure center is near 28N72W.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 28N72W, to the west of a
frontal boundary that is moving through the central Atlantic
Ocean. The high pressure will dissipate into early next week as it
shifts southward as a ridge. This will be happening ahead of a
frontal boundary that is forecast to move across the Carolinas
into the western Atlantic Ocean early next week. The front will
stall across the waters north of 28N through Tuesday, before
becoming diffuse.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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