[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT tue Jul 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa is
along 19W from 05N-17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A well defined
surface trough is evident from scatterometer data, and a maximum
in the total precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is present with this wave. This wave
does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during
the next five days.

A tropical wave moving west of the Cabo Verde Islands is along
31W from 09N-26N, moving west at 15-20 kt. A pronounced 700 mb
trough in the GFS analysis is noted with this wave, along with a
surface trough S of 10N from scatterometer data.  No significant
deep convection is present with this wave. This wave does not
pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the next
five days.

A tropical wave in the east-central Atlantic with axis extending
from 02N-22N along 45W is moving west at 15-20 kt. It is weakly
depicted in 700 mb tropical trough diagnostics and a negligible
surface circulation. North of 13N, the wave is embedded with a
large Saharan Air Layer.  No significant deep convection is
present with this wave. This wave does not pose a threat of
tropical cyclone development during the next five days.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis south of
23N near 69W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The wave was well-
defined at 700 mb from the San Juan and Guadeloupe upper air
soundings this morning, and slight wind shifts are seen in the
scatterometer data. Isolated convection is inland over Venezuela
near the wave axis. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical
cyclone development during the next five days.

A tropical wave over Central America extending south of 23N
along 92W is moving westward at 15 kt, based on tropical trough
diagnostics. Scattered moderate to strong convection exists over
land from 17N-22N between 89W-91W, and from 16N-19N between 92W-
94W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W
to 10N21W to 09N32W. The ITCZ continues from 09N32W to the coast
of South America near 06N58W, disrupted near 07N44W where it
intersects a tropical wave axis. Scattered moderate convection
is present from 05N-09N east of 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge and weak pressure gradient extends into the
eastern Gulf from the W Atlantic. Winds are only 5-10 kt across
the entire Gulf. An upper level trough is supporting widely
scattered moderate convection in the southeastern Gulf. Winds
will remain light during the next couple of days. Substantial
moisture and upper-level trough forcing should contribute toward
scattered moderate to strong deep convection over the Gulf
during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda high northeast of the Caribbean in combination with
low pressure over Panama/Costa Rica associated with the monsoon
trough in the NE Pacific supports a moderate pressure gradient
over the Caribbean. Trade winds are 10-20 kt with highest winds
around 25 kt just NW of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 18N-21N between 78W-83W. In the SW Caribbean, the
monsoon trough supports widespread showers south of 12N between
75W-83W. Little change expected during the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves moving across the basin are detailed above.
The subtropical high dominates the basin. Isolated convection is
observed in the W Atlantic N of 24N W of 77W. Surface ridging
will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the next
couple of days providing stable and dry conditions, except for
scattered convection associated with the wave currently near 19W.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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